Oregon's Playoff Hopes Take Center Stage With New Bowl Projection

Where do the No. 13 Oregon Ducks fall in the latest College Football Playoff chances after their bye week?

Sep 26, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning watches game play against the USC Trojans during the first quarter at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The No. 13 Oregon Ducks exit the bye week refreshed and poised to make a run at their third consecutive College Football Playoff appearance. The first opponent standing in the Ducks' path to reaching the CFP is the No. 21 UCLA Bruins at Autzen Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 10. 

Oregon enters its top-25 showdown against the Bruins with a 3-1 record and fresh off an emotional 41-27 win over the No. 19 USC Trojans at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Saturday, Sept. 26. 

Oregon Ducks Bowl Projection Following Bye Week

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning walks the sideline as the Oregon Ducks face the USC Trojans on Sept. 26, 2026, at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Even with the 39-31 Week 2 road loss to the No. 18 Oklahoma State Cowboys, the Ducks are starting to re-enter the CFP picture after Week 5. According to the latest bowl projections after Week 5, ESPN’s Mark Schlabach has the Ducks projected to be the No. 9 seed in the CFP and to earn a first-round win in Provo against the currently projected No. 8 seed BYU Cougars. 

As for the aftermath of the win over BYU, Schlabach projects the Ducks will fall to quarterback Arch Manning and the No. 1 Texas Longhorns in the CFP Quarterfinal, as Oregon’s aspirations to win the national championship for the first time in program history will fall short again.

Oregon running back Dierre Hill Jr. carries the ball as the Oregon Ducks take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Orange Bowl on Jan. 1, 2026, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura still has the Ducks outside of the CFP, playing the No. 11 Texas Tech Red Raiders in a rematch of last year’s Quarterfinal at the Orange Bowl, a game Oregon won 23-0 before falling to the eventual national champions, the Indiana Hoosiers, 56-22 in the CFP Semifinal at the Peach Bowl.

How Oregon Ducks Make College Football Playoff

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore warms up as the Oregon Ducks face the USC Trojans on Sept. 26, 2026, at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

As for what the Ducks need to do to make the CFP, getting star quarterback Dante Moore back on the field will help, but games against ranked opponents, including the No. 21 UCLA Bruins (Oct. 10) and No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes (Nov. 7), will also be crucial.

The Ducks already have a great resume, including two wins against ranked opponents, the No. 23 Boise State Broncos and the No. 19 USC Trojans. While it was a disappointing loss at the time, the Oklahoma State defeat could prove to help the Ducks if they finish as a two-loss team on Selection Sunday and the Cowboys go on to win the Big 12 this season. 

To make the CFP, the Ducks can likely afford to suffer at least one more loss, whether that be in the Big Ten championship game or against the Buckeyes in Columbus on Nov. 7. The most important game, however, for now is Coach Bob Chesney’s Bruins on Saturday, a team that Dan Lanning has high praise for.

“We’re about to play a UCLA team that reminds me a lot of Indiana from last year… And let’s be honest, we’re not remotely close to what we need to be,” Lanning said. “We can’t spend a week talking about (the last) game.”

The Ducks will also look to avoid slipping up against the Nebraska Cornhuskers (Oct. 17) and Northwestern Wildcats (Oct. 31) at home, two teams off to strong starts. For Saturday’s game against the Bruins, early DraftKings Sportsbook betting odds have the Ducks as 11.5-point favorites. 

The Ducks and Bruins kick off from Autzen Stadium on Saturday at 12:30 p.m. PT, with the game broadcast on CBS.  

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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