Oregon’s Potential National Championship Path Revealed in New Playoff Prediction

The Oregon Ducks will look to make the College Football Playoff for the third consecutive season in 2026. Brett McMurphy of On3 revealed his “way-too-early” playoff and bowl projections. Where did the Ducks land?

Ducks Projected as No. 8 Seed in Playoff

Oregon Ducks Dan Lanning College Football Playoff Projection Indiana Hoosiers Utah Utes Bye National Champions Big Ten — Jan 9, 2026; Atlanta, GA, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning leads his team onto the field prior to the 2025 Peach Bowl and semifinal game of the College Football Playoff against the Indiana Hoosiers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

McMurphy has the Ducks earning the No. 8 ranking in the 2026 College Football Playoff, and he has them slated to host the No. 9 ranked Utah Utes at Autzen Stadium. Oregon and Utah have a history of facing each other from their time together as members of the Pac-12 conference, including their Pac-12 Championship game in 2021. The Ducks have won the two most recent meetings in 2022 and 2023.

Here is McMurphy’s full playoff projections with their rankings:

1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2. Georgia Bulldogs
3. Ohio State Buckeyes
4. Miami Hurricanes
5. Texas Longhorns
6. Texas Tech Red Raiders
7. Indiana Hoosiers
8. Oregon Ducks
9. Utah Utes
10. Texas A&M Aggies
11. Oklahoma Sooners
12. UTSA Roadrunners

If Oregon were to beat Utah, they would face the No. 1 ranked team in the land (per McMurphy's predictions) coming off a bye week, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a neutral site game. If Oregon upset No. 1, they would advance to the semifinal in a neutral site game against either the No. 4, No. 5, or No. 12 ranked team. A win in this spot would advance Oregon to the national title game in Vegas.

McMurphy has Oregon beating Utah and then losing to Notre Dame in the quarterfinal.

MORE: Five-Star Recruit Tyran Stokes Turns Heads as Decision Nears

MORE: Oregon Fans Will Love Latest NFL Draft Prediction For Kenyon Sadiq

MORE: Texas Receiver Opens Up On Oregon Offer And What Comes Next

SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER HERE!

Oregon's Playoff Runs Under Dan Lanning

Oregon not getting a bye in the playoff is not the worst thing in the world. Under coach Dan Lanning, Oregon has been on both sides of the bye. In 2024, the Ducks went an undefeated 12-0 in the regular season and capped it off with a Big Ten championship game win over the Penn State Nittany Lions. The Ducks would go on the earn the No. 1 overall ranking in the playoff and a bye to the quarterfinal.

Their stay in the playoff did not last long. In their first game, the Ducks got blown out by the No. 8 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl. Ohio State went on to win the national championship.

In 2025, Oregon made it to the playoff again. This time, it was as the No. 5 ranked team without a bye. The Ducks won their first round game against the No. 12 James Madison Dukes in front of the Autzen Stadium fans and then shutout the No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Orange Bowl to make it to the semifinal.

The semifinal is where Oregon’s season would come to an end as they lost to the eventual national champion Indiana Hoosiers.

After two seasons of the 12-team College Football Playoff, Indiana is the only team with a bye to win a game. The other seven teams have all lost in their quarterfinal matchup.

Why is this the case? It could just be due to the smaller sample size. Plus, Indiana proved this past season that having a bye isn’t a reason to not be able to win a championship.

The only aspect where a bye in theory can “hurt” is that the team has an extended period of time off and it throws off their rhythm. With the playoff dates between rounds already being spread out, a team earning a bye to the quarterfinal may go a full three or four weeks without playing a football game against and then play a team coming off a first round win.