Oregon Ducks Predicted To Regress In Second Big Ten Season?

The Oregon Ducks won the 2024 Big Ten Championship, but Oregon coach Dan Lanning and the Ducks are not expected to be as successful in 2025. The Penn State Nittany Lions and Ohio State Buckeyes have better projections in the conference.

Jan 1, 2025; Pasadena, CA, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning speaks in a press conference after the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the 2025 Rose Bowl college football quarterfinal game at Rose Bowl Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Oregon Ducks are the reigning Big Ten champions, and they will attempt to complete that feat once more when the 2025 season starts at the end of August. What are the expectations for Oregon and Ducks coach Dan Lanning?

ESPN’s football power index (FPI) was recently updated and includes three Big Ten teams, including Oregon, in the top 10. The FPI is a rating that ranks each team's strength relative to an average FBS squad by using values relating to offense, defense, and special teams. The ensuing values are then turned into “points."

ESPN FPI Poll Ranks Oregon Lower Than 2024

Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning celebrates Saturday, Dec. 7, 2024, during the Big Ten Championship game between the Oregon Ducks and the Penn State Nittany Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The Ducks defeated the Nittany Lions, 45-37. | Grace Smith/Indianapolis Star / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The coaches poll was released at the beginning of August, and had Oregon ranked at No. 7. The FPI, like the coaches poll, also has the Ducks at No. 7. The FPI has determined that Oregon is 17.7 points per game better than the average FBS college football team.

The FPI has given the Oregon Ducks a 13.4 percent chance to win the Big Ten. Oregon defeated Penn State in the Big Ten championship game last year and had a 37 percent chance to win the Big Ten going into the preseason last year. 

Oregon Ducks' College Football Playoff Chances

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning walks off the field as the Oregon Ducks face the Ohio State Buckeyes Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025, in the quarterfinal of the College Football Playoff at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The ESPN FPI has given the Oregon Ducks just north of a coin flip to make the college football playoff in 2025, with a 51 percent chance. The FPI gave the Ducks a 75 percent chance to make the college football playoff last year. The Ducks have a very manageable schedule this year, with their toughest games coming on the road in week five at Penn State and the season finale in Seattle against Washington. 

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The ESPN FPI prior to the 2024-25 college football season gave the Ducks a 12.9 percent chance to win the national championship. This season, the FPI gives Oregon just a three percent chance this season to win it all. The FPI also calculates that the Ducks will be an entire game worse than they were last year, giving Oregon a projected nine wins as opposed to 10 last year before the season began. 

FPI Gives Ohio State, Penn State Better Chance To Win National Championship

Penn State football head coach James Franklin answers a question at a press conference during football media day in Beaver Stadium on Saturday, August 2, 2025, in State College. | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Only two Big Ten teams are ranked above Oregon. Ohio State is ranked at No. 4, while Penn State sits one slot behind them at No. 5. The Buckeyes and Nittany Lions combined to make up 65 percent of the chance to win the Big Ten, with the Buckeyes being handed a 35 percent chance and Penn State being handed a 30 percent chance to win the conference championship.

The coaches' poll and the ESPN FPI have some glaring differences. Ohio State is ranked No. 2 in the poll, while the FPI has them at No. 4. The USC Trojans were not ranked in the top 25 of the poll, but the FPI has them ranked at No. 14.