Surprise Big Ten Rival Could Jeopardize Oregon's Playoff Hopes

The Oregon Ducks boosted their College Football Playoff hopes by beating USC, but here's how a rival not on the schedule could move past Oregon for a spot.

Oregon Ducks receiver Dakorien Moore | Darby Winter

The Oregon Ducks didn't just move back into the top 15 by beating then No. 12 USC. They boosted their playoff chances in the process.

The Ducks now hold a 41 percent chance of cracking into the 2026 College Football Playoffs as of Sept. 29. That hands Oregon the 11th-best odds to make it in.

Oregon wide receiver Evan Stewart breaks a tackle from USC safety Prophet Brown as the Oregon Ducks face the USC Trojans on Sept. 26, 2026, at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

However, one analyst pointed out the biggest threat to the Ducks, which happens to be a team that got left off Oregon's schedule.

Who Could Disrupt Oregon's Playoff Pursuit

It's not the defending champion Indiana Hoosiers, as they hold the highest chance among Big Ten teams to make it into the postseason. Nor is it Ohio State, currently owning the second-best odds and will soon see the Ducks in a massive Nov. 7 showdown in Columbus.

Not even Oregon's upcoming opponent after the Oct. 3 bye week, UCLA, is the threat here. Despite the Bruins surging into the top 25 under coach Bob Chesney, he returns to Autzen Stadium for the first time since the James Madison playoff loss there in 2025.

So who's the biggest threat according to ESPN FPI (Football Power Index)?

Sep 26, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes running back Kamari Moulton (28) reacts after the game against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

ESPN college football analyst Heather Dinich has grown to like the Iowa Hawkeyes' chances. Handing the No. 14 team in the nation an "enigma" label compared to Oregon's spotlight.

Dinich acknowledges that Oregon holds the current third-best odds among Big Ten teams to make it inside the playoffs. And that's with or without an appearance in the conference championship game. But here's the main reason why Iowa's chances are increasing, to the point that the Hawkeyes are now the ones breathing down Oregon's neck.

"Nobody in the Big Ten has a better strength of record (No. 5) than the Hawkeyes. Saturday's thrilling 20-19 win at Michigan kept Iowa undefeated heading into the biggest game of the season, against Ohio State," Dinich said. "Saturday's game against the Buckeyes will determine how seriously to take Iowa, as even a close loss would earn them credit in the committee meeting room."

Who Faces the Tougher Road Between Iowa and Oregon

Oregon running back Dierre Hill Jr. carries the ball as the Oregon Ducks face the USC Trojans on Sept. 26, 2026, at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Oregon now must find a way to run away from the rest of the Big Ten following its 41-27 romp over USC.

The Ducks must topple two currently ranked teams to get there, along with winning out. Once again, 23rd-ranked UCLA is on the horizon, and no doubt, the Bruins want to deliver a huge statement in that one. The next ranked foe after is that aforementioned November showdown with No. 5 OSU.

Oregon Ducks coach Dan Lanning | Darby Winter

But Nebraska could be 6-0 and ranked by the time it faces Oregon on Oct. 17, and before the Ducks' showdown at Columbus. The Cornhuskers can certainly boost their own CFP chances by shocking No. 6 Indiana in Lincoln on Oct. 10.

Iowa, meanwhile, only faces one current top-25 team the rest of the way. And it's on Oct. 3 against the Buckeyes in Iowa City. No doubt the CFP committee will be watching that one. Perhaps coach Dan Lanning and company will be observing too, in case Iowa boosts its playoff chances over the Ducks.

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