Three Reasons Why A Two-Loss Oregon Team Would Make College Football Playoff

The Oregon Ducks currently sit with a 9-1 record with two games left in the regular season. If they drop one more game, they will see their chances of making the College Football Playoff drop, but it wouldn't complete knock them out of contention.

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore throws a pass before the game as the Oregon Ducks host the Minnesota Golden Gophers on Nov. 14, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The No. 7 Oregon Ducks will make it back-to-back appearances in the College Football Playoff if they win out in their final two games of the regular season, but it's not a guarantee that the Ducks are able to pull out two wins.

No. 15 USC will travel to Autzen Stadium to take on the Ducks in a top 15 matchup. Oregon follows that game up with their season finale at Washington. It's not their toughest stretch of the season, but it won't be easy for the Ducks, who can't afford to go on cruise control against either team.

The Case

Oct 18, 2025; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning looks on during the second half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Although the Ducks are favored to beat USC and Washington to end their regular season, there's still a chance they could slip up.

USC is the No. 15 team in the country and is coming off a 26-21 comeback win over No. 21 Iowa. Washington hasn't had the season they wanted, but could still get up for a rivalry game vs. the Ducks.

If Oregon drops a game to either team, it wouldn't be the ugliest mark on a team's CFP resume. Just look at other two-loss teams who are looking for a CFP bid.

The Ducks have no wins over teams currently ranked, giving Oregon a prime opportunity against No. 15 USC. If Washington is able to beat Oregon in the season finale, the Ducks' wins over USC, Iowa, and Penn State should be more than enough to get them an at-large bid into the CFP.

Things would become a bit more interesting if they lose to USC and beat Washington. It would be a bit more murkier with only two ranked wins. However, the Ducks will still have compelling wins vs. then-No. 3 Penn State and then-No. 18 Iowa.

At-Large Bid Chasing

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning walks the field as the Oregon Ducks host the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Sept. 6, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It's unlikely that the Ducks will make it to the Big Ten championship game with Ohio State and Indiana shaping up to win out. Even if they win out and don't drop another game, Oregon will still have to chase an at-large bid.

The lack of ranked opponents on their schedule compared to an SEC team like Oklahoma, but the Ducks have more than proved their worth.

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All Eyes On Eugene This Week

Nov 7, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

ESPN's College GameDay is in town for Oregon's game vs. USC. It's a big top 15 matchup that has CFP implications on the line. With the 12:30 p.m. PT kickoff, it's a national primetime slot.

In recent years, Oregon hasn't been a stranger to playing in these type of big games. The Ducks have hosted some top programs in Eugene during Lanning's tenure.

This season alone, the Ducks have already played a top 10 team at home when Indiana traveled to Autzen for albeit it was their lone loss of the year. Last season, Oregon hosted Ohio State in one of the biggest regular season games in 2024.