Penn State vs. Wisconsin Predictions: Where the Nittany Lions Have the Edge in Week 4

The storylines for Penn State's Big Ten opener against Wisconsin surround the offense's explosiveness without Koby Howard and whether the starting defense can continue its streak of not allowing touchdowns.

As for the predictions, here's what the Penn State on SI staff expects to happen Saturday at Beaver Stadium. If you can't be there, remember that the game is streaming exclusively on Peacock.

1. Penn State vs. Wisconsin score and prediction

Penn State Nittany Lions associate head coach Terry Smith (left) stands with his players while singing the alma mater. — Penn State Nittany Lions associate head coach Terry Smith (left) stands with his players while singing the alma mater following the game against the Buffalo Bulls at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Chase Fisher: Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell said that “there’s no tougher place to play” than Beaver Stadium. The Badgers bring their 0-5 road record from last season into a raucous Happy Valley environment on Saturday, and those road troubles will stick. Penn State’s third-ranked defense nationally in scoring (7.3 points per game) will be too much for a Wisconsin offense that scored just 13 against Notre Dame. Penn State 24, Wisconsin 16

Will Horstman: Penn State came out of its light non-conference schedule unscathed. Some could say the real season starts this weekend with the Big Ten slate starting, but a home game against Wisconsin should lead to another win. The Badgers were 2-7 in conference play last season and haven’t won a road game since Oct. 19, 2024. An evening game at Beaver Stadium likely won’t change that, so the Nittany Lions should move to 1-0 to kick off Big Ten play. Penn State 31, Wisconsin 17

Mark Wogenrich: Don't want to press the panic button about receiver Koby Howard's injury too much, because Penn State's offense has other playmakers. Trouble is, Howard has been their best overall offensive threat around whom OC Taylor Mouser has built the offense. The Nittany Lions won't look the same without him Saturday. But Rocco Becht handles stress well, and his defense will unravel Wisconsin's pass game. Penn State 27, Wisconsin 19

2. Who is the game's MVP?

Penn State Nittany Lions linebacker Kooper Ebel (8) attempts to block a field goal vs. the Buffalo Bulls at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Chase Fisher: In a game that will tell so much about the future of Penn State’s season, its quarterback, the most experienced at his position in college football, will be the difference-maker on Saturday. And he will be the game MVP for the reason of what he will not do: turn the ball over. Rocco Becht has yet to throw an interception or lose a fumble in three games; that trend continues Saturday. He won’t light up the stat sheet, but in what should be a low-scoring game, holding onto the ball is far more important.

Will Horstman: Running back Quinton Martin Jr. just took 10 carries for 100 yards during the win over Buffalo, leading the way for Penn State’s run game to break through a lackluster start. Surely the Nittany Lions would give Martin more opportunities after his performance, which would give him the chance to play a critical role in the offense as it looks to start Big Ten play with a win.

Mark Wogenrich: Linebacker Kooper Ebel has been the best Iowa State transfer so far on Penn State's defense. He's reliable, rarely out of position and consistently makes tackles. Ebel has 10 in three games, a seeming light number until you realize how much he shared the position with Cael Brezina in the non-conference schedule. Wiscon QB Colton Joseph and RB Abu Sama III (Ebel's former Iowa State teammate) will look to get him out of position. Ebel won't bite and is the defensive star.

3. Who is Penn State's unsung hero?

Penn State Nittany Lions wide receiver Brett Eskildsen reacts after scoring a touchdown vs. the Marshall Thundering Herd. — Penn State Nittany Lions wide receiver Brett Eskildsen (4) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Marshall Thundering Herd at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Chase Fisher: It might be the boring pick, but kicker Ryan Barker. The Badgers’ run defense is stout — it held Notre Dame to only 3.5 yards per carry — and Penn State’s air attack is hobbled (Koby Howard out, while Andrew Rappleyea and Brett Eskildsen deal with injuries). Expect a lot of unfinished drives where Barker drills a few field goals of at least 40 yards.

Will Horstman: Receiver Brett Eskildsen. Penn State endured bad news in losing Howard for an “extended period of time” due to injury. But there was some good news with receiver Brett Eskildsen saying he’s “fully back” after playing at less than full strength against Buffalo. With Howard out, Penn State might funnel more passing plays to Eskildsen, allowing him to potentially have his best game as a Nittany Lion so far.

Mark Wogenrich: Defensive end Caleb Bacon has been an unsung hero through three games. He leads Penn State with four tackles for loss and forced a fumble, so he's affecting the game. Like Ebel, Bacon plays his position soundly. And he doesn't get enough credit for that.

4. Which former Iowa State running back gains more yards: Penn State's Carson Hansen or Wisconsin's Abu Sama III?

Wisconsin Badgers running back Abu Sama III (3) scores a 72-yard touchdown against the Western Illinois Leathernecks. — Wisconsin Badgers running back Abu Sama III (3) scores a 72-yard touchdown against the Western Illinois Leathernecks at Camp Randall Stadium. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Chase Fisher: The Wisconsin and Penn State run defenses are similar, deviating by only about two yards per game allowed on the ground. There’s not much of an advantage toward one of Hansen or Sama playing an easier run defense. So give me Sama, who will have a more involved role than Hansen on Saturday. James Peoples and Quinton Martin Jr. might get more burn than Hansen, who both had tremendous games against Buffalo in Week 3.

Will Horstman: Carson Hansen’s issue is he’s stuck in a four-way battle for touches, making it difficult to see him rack up yardage. Abu Sama III was stifled by Notre Dame’s defense, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry, but he should see more volume than Hansen to rush for more yards.

Mark Wogenrich: Sama, Wisconsin's No. 1 back, says he's healthy after missing last week's game against Eastern Illinois. Hansen, meanwhile, lost carries to Martin and James Peoples in the first half against Buffalo. Penn State's defense really wants to hold Sama to 50-60 yards, but he'll probably get more work than Hansen. We'll go with Sama, but it will be close.

5. What will Penn State fans be talking about Sunday?

Penn State Nittany Lions wide receiver Zay Robinson (2) celebrates a win over the Buffalo Bulls at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Chase Fisher: Maybe the air attack will be fine without Koby Howard. It won’t be the prettiest on Saturday, but Rocco Becht should limit turnovers and get everyone involved in the passing game. Wide receivers Chase Sowell, Brett Eskildsen and Zay Robinson are very capable of holding their own. And tight end Ben Brahmer can carry the load himself, as seen in Week 2 against Temple when he caught five balls for 79 yards and two touchdowns.

Will Horstman: Penn State climbed five spots in the AP Top 25 to No. 13 after beating three under-powered non-conference teams. A win Saturday would give the Nittany Lions a 4-0 start to the season, but a home game against Wisconsin is one of the more favorable matchups possible to open Big Ten play. Even if Penn State defeats the Badgers, the first real test of the season comes next week at Northwestern.

Mark Wogenrich: How long Koby Howard will be out, will Koby Howard be back for the USC game and can the Nittany Lions get a road win at Northwestern without Koby Howard.

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