Pitt Way-Too-Early Bowl Projection Shows Improvement

PITTSBURGH — We are currently closer to the end of the 2025-26 college football season than the beginning of the 2026-27 regular season, and yet, the Pitt Panthers have their first bowl game prediction.

Pitt's 2025 season ended in a disappointing bowl game defeat to East Carolina in the Go Bowling Military Bowl, even though the Panthers had a significant advantage on paper.

But that's in the past. Now, it's time to look towards the future.

Dec 27, 2025; Annapolis, MD, USA; East Carolina Pirates head coach Blake Harrell and Pittsburgh Panthers head coach Pat Narduzzi shake hands at mid field after playing in the Military Bowl at Navy-Marine Corps Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images | Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

On3's Brett McMurphy released his way-too-early bowl projections, and Pitt fans will be pleased to find that the Panthers are not projected to play in the Military Bowl again.

Instead, McMurphy predicts that Pitt will face the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl.

Pitt to the Pinstripe Bowl?

Pitt's 2026 roster will look quite different from the 2025 team, and many see it as a downgrade.

The Panthers lost key players like Desmond Reid, Kyle Louis, Rasheem Biles, Raphael "Poppi" Williams, Kenny Johnson and Francis Brewu, but only added one Power 4 starter through the transfer portal with plenty of former backups, FCS and Group of Five players, and signed a barely top 50 high school recruiting class.

Pitt was in contention to make the Pinstripe Bowl a season ago and was projected to face in-state rival Penn State in many cases, but instead made the Military Bowl, which left many fans displeased with the postseason draw.

Pittsburgh Panthers Military Bow — Dec 27, 2025; Annapolis, MD, USA; East Carolina Pirates celebrate on the stage after defeating the Pittsburgh Panthers to win the Military Bowl at Navy-Marine Corps Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images | Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

That attitude came back to bite as Pitt lost 23-17 against a Group of Five team without numerous starters. And now, with a less-talented roster on paper, Pitt is projected to make the bowl game that many fans desired in 2025. But how is that possible?

Pitt lucked out with its 2026 schedule. That's how.

Only four of the 12 teams the Panthers will face had a winning record in 2025, and just one went .500. The teams with winning records were Miami, Georgia Tech, Louisville and Cal, and Miami (Ohio) was the lone team to finish .500.

In McMurphy's bowl projections, just seven of the 12 teams on Pitt's schedule are expected to be bowl eligible next season — Miami (Ohio), Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Louisville, and Cal.

This means that if Pitt beats each expected non-bowl-eligible opponent and just one expected bowl-eligible team, like Miami (Ohio), it too will be bowl-eligible. The Panthers also defeated Florida State and Georgia Tech on the road last season.

It's possible that Pitt finishes with a similar record to 2025'2 8-4 total, thanks to its schedule, leaving the team with a possible shot at the Pinstripe Bowl.

A lot will happen between now and then, but things could be looking worse for Pitt entering the 2026 season.

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