Who Has The Advantage When Texas A&M Hosts Miami in Round 1 of the College Football Playoff

In less than two weeks, the answers will finally be answered.

Is Texas A&M as good as they have played all season, or is Miami the dark horse of the college football playoffs? Is this the upset of the first round, or does coach Mike Elko’s program defend its home field to punch a ticket to the Cotton Bowl against Ohio State at AT&T Stadium on New Year's Eve?

J.D. Pickell thinks it will be a thriller next Saturday morning at Kyle Field.

“The quarterback play being stable to reach their ceiling, that’s going to determine the whole game,” Pickell said.

Miami Thoughts

Miami football players running onto the field to take on NC State. — Nov 15, 2025; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck (center) enters the field to warm up before the game against NC State Wolfpack at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Pickell knows that for the Hurricanes to have much success, it all starts with Georgia transfer QB Carson Beck. In Pickell's mind, he knows that Beck has a history of coming under pressure, making silly mistakes, and throwing interceptions that have hurt his team down the line.

“The thing with Carson Beck, unfortunately, when it rains, it pours with him," Pickell said. "When there’s one pick, sometimes he starts pressing, and there’s more interceptions to follow.”

Games that came to his mind were the SMU loss, when he threw two interceptions.

“They’ve been in playoff mode since the SMU loss,” Pickell said. “I think I like that. I think Miami has a point to prove more than anyone else in the college football playoff because there’s been so much in the wake of them getting in that’s been from other fanbases. Miami, you want to shut them up? Go win the college football playoff game on the road against a team in Texas A&M that, as of a couple weeks ago, we all thought was going to get a bye in the first round.”

Coach Mario Cristobal’s program, at times, hasn’t leaned on Beck as much as it has on the ground game, which has had to carry them to the finish line in several games.

“Miami has been phenomenal when it comes to stopping the run,” Pickell said. “A big part of that, they are aggressive at the second and third level. Miami is one of the best teams in college football when it comes to stopping the run.”

Running back Mark Fletcher Jr. is projected to have a heavy presence in the game. So are the Miami wide receivers, including Malachi Toney, who has had a breakout season as a freshman.

“Miami has three receivers,” Pickell said. "They are all averaging over 11 yards a catch. Miami is a top-20 team when it comes to accessing the screen personnel and screen-type plays. When that happens, Malachi Toney gets his touches.”

Texas A&M Evaluation

The Aggies’ offense received a lot of credit from Pickell for all the success it has seen this season, with the running game a primary reason it has opened up the pass game for QB Marcel Reed.

“A&M has been so elite on the offensive side of the ball because they’ve been able to get something going on the ground more often than not,” Pickell said. “For A&M, if you get something going on in the ground game, everything else is open to you. You got the play-action game. You get Marcel Reed getting in there, too, a little bit in the quarterback design run game. You can do some of the screen game. Everything is at your disposal if you can establish something on the ground.”

Rushing the ball was a major emphasis Pickell made on how the Aggies might secure a win at Kyle Field. Even without RB Le'Veon Moss, who was injured for most of the season, the team has had support in the group of rushers that has helped down the line.

“A&M over the course of the season has got four different ball carriers that average five yards a carry or more,” Pickell said. “There’s nothing concrete on Le’Veon Moss and his availability, but if he’s able to go, hang on tight,” Pickell said. “I think that dude may be the best player on their football team.”

There’s an argument about that statement because of what Reed has done to keep his team relevant and in the conversation to win a national championship. At his disposal are WRs KC Concepcion and Mario Craver, who have been two of his favorite targets, but what has factored into his distribution of the ball to his weapons is setting his feet.

“There’s a reason why A&M is one of the top teams in America when it comes to yards per pass. If you can get those safeties a little bit rock and roll, a little aggressive, advantage A&M,” Pickell said. “If Marcel Reed is able to have the run at his back and he is able to get Miami off balance, and they’re guessing at what you’re doing — that to me would give a game script where Marcel Reed is able to set his feet. He sets his feet; they’re in flow state. Nobody is beating A&M.”

After studying both teams, Pickell finally chose the winner of the game.

“I'm taking the team with more ways to win,” Pickell said. “The team I’ve seen slip up less. The team that’s at home. I think it's close, but I’ll take Texas A&M to win — with a final score being 31-27.”