What Did We Learn From the TCU Weekend Series Loss vs. UCF

Welcome back to another edition of What Did We Learn. With the return of the baseball season, my weekly article returns, a two-year-long tradition now. At the end of every weekend, I release my weekly "what did we learn"—an opinionated editorial detailing what Frog fans can take away from the week before that might not appear in the box score.

Another weekend of baseball for the TCU Horned Frogs, and another beginning of the week that leaves fans with more questions than answers regarding the state of the program. The Frogs are 13-10, and a measly 2-4 in conference play, and are in an early hole for the rest of the season.

In my weekly rendition, what did Frog fans actually learn from this weekend, and just how dire is the situation?

Struggles are Mounting

May 16, 2025: TCU Baseball's Cole Cramer takes batting practice prior to their game against Utah. | X: @TCU_Baseball

There are still eight more weekend series left in the season. That's the light at the end of the tunnel right now. A minimum of 24 games remaining (with some mid-weeks mixed in as well). In theory, there is still plenty of time remaining in the season to turn the year around. It happened in 2022, and it resulted in a College World Series run, so why can't it happen again?

On paper, that is the best way to look at the current situation, but, looking at the paper, it doesn't exactly scream that this is a team caught up in bad luck, per se. Yes, they have played four top-30 teams by RPI, but their record against them is 2-8 during that stretch. As it stands now, the Frogs rank 70th in RPI, with a 45th-strength-of-schedule ranking.

The main problem has been the pitching; there is just simply no denying that. Head coach Kirk Saarloos spoke about it after the opening weekend loss on Friday night, saying that he felt his staff wasn't pitching with confidence, which resulted in too many free passes - 12 to be exact that game. His diagnosis isn't wrong either, and while yes, there have been injuries to the staff, there is still a ton of talent that should have been able to step up when needed.

However, it isn't just pitching that has been the problem this season. The offense and defense have both contributed, and both in spots that have felt like a plus for the team this season. The Frogs are batting .247 as a team, that is nearly .50 worse than their opponents who are hitting .297 on the year. Sawyer Strosnider is the only player batting above .290 on the year, and has five more home runs than the next closest player on the team.

They have 171 hits on the season, which ranks dead last in the conference, but they rank first in the league in walks. The approach at the plate is resulting in traffic and tough battles, but the hits aren't coming through. One could point out that it's bad luck and that it will turn around, and, in theory, they should next weekend against Texas Tech, who has the only statistically worse pitching staff in the conference than the Frogs.

Their average margin of loss this season is 6.9 runs. The margin of victory is 6.3 runs, so it's not nearly a huge difference, but for the purpose of this exercise, let's remove the weekend series against New Haven (who ranks 302 out of 308 in RPI) from the results. Then you drop to 4.4 runs in the margin of victories this season.

It's easy to say that there is still plenty of time in the season, and the Frogs will turn it around. They should, because the talent level doesn't reflect the results. There have been flashes, such as Lance Davis this weekend, seemingly putting it together, but like the rest of the year, can you do it two weeks in a row?

I know for myself personally, there were sky-high expectations for this team, and rightfully so. Everything was there. Returning production, talented freshman, a favorable schedule to be tested, and sit comfortably in RPI. There is hope, there is still time, I want to believe there still is, and Frog fans should feel that way as well, but now it's time to show something. Show some fight, show some frustration. Show anything except what fans see now.

What's Next For the Frogs

TCU goes on the road to face Dallas Baptist on Tuesday, March 24, needing a clean, confident response after another tough weekend. From there, the focus shifts to a huge home Big 12 series against conference rival, Texas Tech, from March 27-29. If the Frogs can't take that series, the climb in conference play gets a lot steeper. They'll then return home to face Lamar on March 31.