National Analysts Are Already Doubting TCU in 2026. Here's Why They Could Be Wrong

It's Horned Frog football time, well, not quite. We are still 78 days away from TCU's first game, but it's never too early to dive into some college football.

National college football writers are already rolling out their season predictions, projecting records, ranking schedules, and stating their opinions on who they believe the true contenders are. As normal, TCU finds itself on the wrong end of the conversation, and I am here to tell you why I feel they are wrong.

Yes, I know I am a die-hard optimistic Frog, but I feel TCU is not getting the benefit of the doubt. Whether it's a national outlet projecting a seven- or eight-win season or a rival fanbase claiming the Horned Frogs won't contend in the Big 12, one thing remains certain: this is always the case for the Frogs. The same people who have spent the last several years underestimating TCU are doing it again.

The reality? TCU's schedule is fairly favorable despite having some challenges, and this team is significantly better than what it gets credit for. However, all the talk doesn't affect Sonny Dykes' Horned Frogs, as they have always been overlooked, even in the year they made their National Championship run.

If history has taught us anything, it's that counting out the Horned Frogs before the season starts is usually a mistake. Once again, the national media may be learning that lesson the hard way.

Yes, I know TCU has had a lot of moving pieces this offseason, from coaching changes to roster turnover, but this team is full of potential.

Let's dive into what a few commentators are saying.

The Doubt Around TCU Is Already Starting

Why 365 Sports Sees in TCU

In this podcast, Craig Smoak projects TCU to finish the 2026 season at 7-5 overall and 4-5 in Big 12 play. He believes the Horned Frogs will once again be a dangerous team, but has them taking a step back record-wise. Doesn’t make too much sense to me. Smoak believes this team has several areas of concern, including how smoothly Jaden Craig will transition to a bigger, more competitive conference. He also states the offensive line has improved, but will have to prove itself on the field. Defensively, he believes TCU's front is a strong point, but remains skeptical about the rest of the defensive unit after last season's squad relied on turnovers. He predicts losses to UCF, BYU, Arizona, Kansas State, and Texas Tech, arguing that the mixture of roster turnover, a new offensive coordinator, and unanswered questions on both sides of the ball prevents him from giving the Horned Frogs a better record and the benefit of the doubt heading into 2026.

Why Solid Verbal Is More Optimistic

The Solid College Verbal Show centers on TCU’s outlook for the upcoming season, with both analysts optimistic but cautious about the Frogs’ record. They state they are nervous to go any higher because of the tough schedule featuring North Carolina, SMU, Arizona State, Kansas State, Baylor, Iowa State, BYU, Houston, and Cincinnati. The two hosts acknowledge that TCU has many strengths, but they raise concerns about the loss of key receivers, inconsistent run game, and lingering defensive issues, particularly against the run and explosive plays. Despite the few concerns, as they work through the schedule, they begin to feel more optimistic, noting many opponents also have defensive questions. The Frogs just must start strong. The conversation ultimately shifts from skepticism (around 6–6 or 7–5) to a better projection that TCU could reach 8–4.

Dave Campbell's Offers the Most Encouraging Projection

In the Dave Campbell's Texas Football podcast, Craven and Carter have the most optimistic look when it comes to the Horned Frogs’ record. The most interesting part about it is that Craven has visited some TCU practices this summer and has had an inside look. Both analysts are optimistic but still cautious about the Frogs’ ceiling. They highlight the program’s ability to develop talent and build a roster. They also note the impact of key offseason changes, including the hiring of offensive coordinator Gordon Sammons, who is expected to bring a more physical, run-focused, and lower-turnover identity, the loss of quarterback Josh Hoover, and the addition of new quarterback Jaden Craig. While they are intrigued by Craig’s size, arm talent, and fit in the new system, they believe the bigger questions lie in the run game and overall defensive consistency rather than the program as a whole. Overall, they see TCU as a team capable of improving from last season but still hard to fully project. This is why they, like others, land on a range around 8–4. However, they do have the Frogs’ ceiling at competing for a Big 12 Championship if everything catches fire and clicks together.

Is TCU actually Being Underrated?

TCU heads into the season with plenty of doubt around them. The question now is whether it is reasonable doubt or will this TCU team turn some heads and prove the haters wrong. Analysts and football writers have TCU once again underperforming, mostly because of a schedule that doesn’t offer many favors, but also because of changing pieces, such as losing Josh Hoover and Kendall Briles and starting over with a new offensive lens. The Frogs have always been unpredictable and are known to shock the collegiate world, and in the Big 12, that’s often enough. Baylor and Texas Tech fans can talk all they want about TCU, but neither program has exactly been in a position to act like the Big 12’s leading program. Well, maybe Tech for one year. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt—it was a great run last season—and they might be a little sour with all the Sorsby allegations. But meanwhile, TCU just keeps finding itself back in the conversation and not for allegations like the other two schools.

I can't promise it, but I feel like TCU is going to turn some heads this season, and they are more than capable of beating all odds and getting back to the Big 12 championship once again. Only time will tell, let me know what y'all think.

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