Predicting The 2025 TCU Horned Frogs Football Season, Record

Forecasting a college football team by assigning wins or losses to each game on its schedule is an irresistibly flawed tradition. Every fan's done it – browsing the list of opponents on the TCU Horned Frogs schedule and predicting wins and losses. So, with the upcoming college football season just days away, let's pull up TCU's 2025 football schedule and do just that.

Last year, the game-by-game approach got us to 8-4, which is exactly where TCU finished the regular season. Looking for a little more in-depth (and accurate) way to forecast a win-loss record? I'll do that after the more fun way.

Predicting TCU's 2025 Football Season Game-by-Game

According to ESPN's FPI, TCU plays the 48th-toughest schedule in the nation, right on par with last year's slate (ranked 47th). Once again, TCU plays 11 Power Conference opponents and is one of just two teams to do so in 2025 (Baylor). The Horned Frogs navigated that tricky lineup last year just fine, but it's worth considering when assessing win totals.

Week 1: at North Carolina Tar Heels

The UNC bandwagon with Bill Belichick is a bit overzealous, I think. This is a team with average talent and a QB that projects well, but it's Game 1 in a new setting. We've seen TCU drop-the-season-opener-to-a-new-celebrity-coach shtick before, but I don't think this is as severe. The Frogs opened up as underdogs, and sharp money (a.k.a guys who know what they're doing) moved them all the way to a favorite.

Read my UNC football preview linked below for my full thoughts – I don't think hiring the NFL's best coach of all time makes the Tar Heels all that compelling in college football. Maybe I'm wrong.

Predicted result: WIN (1-0)

North Carolina Tar Heels team preview

Week 2: BYE

Week 3: vs. Abilene Christian Wildcats

Abilene Christian took Texas Tech to OT and scored 51 on the Red Raiders last year! But that QB and offensive coordinator are both at Western Kentucky now, and this should be a straightforward win.

Predicted result: WIN (2-0)

Week 4: vs. SMU Mustangs

It's the last Battle for the Iron Skillet, and it plays out in TCU's own backyard. It's true SMU throttled TCU last year behind 66 points, and the Mustangs made the College Football Playoff. Numbers won't reflect the impact of pure distaste in this one. Expect a raucous environment and for this to be a great fight. My preseason numbers slate this one at an exact 50-50 tossup (a rarity!), and TCU playing at home bumps them a touch.

Sonny Dykes & Co. should come in with a better game plan this time around for QB Kevin Jennings.

Predicted result: WIN (3-0)

SMU Mustangs team preview

Week 5: at Arizona State Sun Devils

Despite losing Cam Skattebo, Arizona State has the talent to run it back in the Big 12. QB Sam Leavitt is an exciting piece, and WR Jordyn Tyson might be the best receiver in his class. The defense returns nine of its starters, and the offensive line, four. Coming off an emotional thrill of the Skillet Game on the road is a bad spot for TCU.

Predicted result: LOSS (3-1)

Arizona State Sun Devils team preview

Week 6: vs. Colorado Buffaloes

This isn't your Colorado Buffaloes team of the last two years. Deion Sanders turns over a prolific QB, Heisman Trophy winner, and one of the better receiving groups in the Big 12. This could be a defense-first team in 2025–and that defense should be pretty good–but the offense has major question marks. This is another game Dykes has circled in red after Colorado came in and beat TCU in dramatic fashion to open 2023.

Predicted result: WIN (4-1)

Colorado Buffaloes team preview

Week 7: at Kansas State Wildcats

Opinions on Kansas State vary from Big 12 favorite to highly overrated. I fall somewhere in between. Avery Johnson needs to continue to develop as a passer, and the Wildcats need to replace a 1,300+ yard rusher. TCU should be able to move the ball through the air, as K-State must also replace NFL talent in the secondary. This could be a high-scoring game, but playing in Manhattan is a difficult task.

K-State is 26-12 at home under Chris Kleiman and 19-10 against the spread when favored (which I project them to be).

Predicted result: LOSS (4-2)

Kansas State Wildcats team preview

Week 8: vs. Baylor Bears

In a long line of exciting recent editions of the TCU-Baylor rivalry, this one should be next up. Josh Hoover vs. Sawyer Roberson, two of the most exciting offenses in the Big 12, and two teams that do not like each other. I project Baylor highly (you can read why below), so this game could hold some serious weight. TCU is 4-1 against Baylor since 2020, with last year's game being the break of the Horned Frog streak.

This one's a real toss-up, but I'll take recent history, an avenging loss from last year, and TCU playing at home as my deciding factors here.

Predicted result: WIN (5-2)

Baylor Bears team preview

Week 9: at West Virginia Mountaineers

This game scares the heck out of me, and it should scare the heck out of you as a TCU fan, too. Despite massive turnover in the coaching and roster ranks, West Virginia brings in 59 new players between recruits and the transfer portal, second-most in the FBS–this is a trap spot. TCU plays exceptionally poorly against WVU, losing five of the last six against the Mountaineers, the last time as 14-point favorites.

Morgantown is a difficult place to play, and Rich Rodriguez is a good long-term hire for this team. They've had eight weeks to get things clicking. This might be a sub-.500 team entering this game (perhaps as bad as 2-5!), and TCU might get spotted too many points for the matchup.

This is my podium game. I'll stand on the soap box. This one's gonna hurt, especially coming off a rivalry victory and this being TCU's seventh consecutive game played.

Predicted result: LOSS (5-3)

West Virginia Mountaineers team preview

Week 10: BYE

Week 11: vs. Iowa State Cyclones

TCU comes off a bye and plays at home. Iowa State has to replace two 1,000-yard NFL-bound receivers. This is the Cyclones' sixth straight game before heading on bye, and rest this deep in the season matters. I like the Frogs here.

Predicted result: WIN (6-3)

Iowa State Cyclones team preview

Week 12: at BYU Cougars

Don't expect a dramatic drop-off for BYU only because its QB left in the transfer portal in July. This is a well-coached team with a migraine of a defense, and the Cougars should, more or less, be as good as they were last year. However–and that's a big however–they benefited from a great schedule. So while this BYU team might be within a couple points of last year's, this is more a 7-5 to 8-4 team than an 11-2 one.

Anyway, Provo is one of the most difficult places to play in the country. TCU fans know this from playing at LaVell Edwards Stadium three times between 2005-2011. The Frogs took two of those games, but 2005's game was anyone's for the taking.

BYU counters what TCU does well, especially in the pass game. Jay Hill's defense thrives in confusing offenses and creating pressure with fewer rushers. It's a winnable game but one that won't come easily.

Predicted result: WIN (7-3)

BYU Cougars team preview

Week 13: at Houston Cougars

Houston's offense will improve from last year, but its defense is bound for regression. That defense put TCU in hell last year, and the Frogs dropped a game as 16.5-point favorites, 30-19. With two of the best secondary players in the Big 12 gone for the NFL, TCU should have a better time moving the ball on this Cougars defense – that is, if they can remain mistake-free.

Another winnable game that I forecast the Frogs winning about twice as often as not.

Predicted result: WIN (8-3)

Houston Cougars team preview

Week 14: vs. Cincinnati Bearcats

This is an interesting spot for Cincinnati. In Year 3 under Scott Satterfield, it appears the Bearcats are growing weary of underperforming – a Satterfield special. QB Brendan Sorsby is a dual-threat athlete, and the run game should again be pretty good. But there's a chance Cincy is undergoing change by this time, especially if it's not bowl-eligible (already with seven losses).

Coaching changes late in the season can spark better play from the team itself. There's also a chance TCU is fairly locked in its season-long place (i.e. out of the Big 12 Championship and CFP but into a bowl). It'll be fascinating in real life to see where both teams are at over Thanksgiving weekend.

Either way, this is a winnable game at home should TCU play with full force.

Predicted result: WIN (9-3)

Cincinnati Bearcats team preview

A Better Way To Predict Final Record

Instead of marking 1, 0, 1, 1, 0 for wins against each opponent, assigning probabilities is the best way to go. After all, if TCU has a 74% chance to beat Colorado, 26% of the time, they will lose. Adding these up comes out to an average expected number of wins. So now let's look at that schedule again with expected win probabilities (I promise these aren't pulled out of a hat, rather from aggregated industry power ratings):

at North Carolina: 62.3%
vs. Abilene Christian: 96.4%
vs. SMU: 50.0%
at Arizona State: 37.7%
vs. Colorado: 74.0%
at Kansas State: 35.2%
vs. Baylor: 62.3%
at West Virginia: 71.8%
vs. Iowa State: 62.3%
at BYU: 50.5%
at Houston: 73.7%
vs. Cincinnati: 76.2%

This way brings us to an average 7.2 wins this season. Given situational spots and uncertainty with opponent turnover, I believe 9-3 is more likely than 7-5.

As you can see above, I'm pretty bullish on the Horned Frogs this year. Having one of the nation's more prolific passers is a huge benefit in games against good opponents (Iowa State, SMU). I fully believe this will be another strong year for the Horned Frogs in which they compete for a spot in the Big 12 Championship and, perhaps, a CFP berth.

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