Previewing the TCU Horned Frogs’ Matchup vs. the Baylor Bears

Frogs look to reclaim momentum and silence doubters in must-win rivalry matchup.

Nov 2, 2024; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears running back Bryson Washington (30) scores his fourth touchdown against the TCU Horned Frogs during the second half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

It’s safe to say that TCU’s trip to Manhattan didn’t go as planned. Despite outgaining Kansas State 448-347, the Horned Frogs were thoroughly dismantled and came away with a 41-28 defeat. As such, the momentum created from the Colorado victory two weeks ago has almost completely evaporated, and now the Frogs are left to pick up the pieces and search for answers as they get ready to take on the rival Baylor Bears.

Both teams enter this battle with their Big 12 and College Football Playoff hopes on the line. Baylor’s season started poorly with a nonconference loss to Auburn before it was able to bounce back against SMU a couple of weeks later. Unfortunately for the Bears, Arizona State’s miracles from last season continued, and the Sun Devils were able to win in Waco on a walk-off field goal, saddling Baylor with its second loss of the season. But after back-to-back wins over Oklahoma State and Kansas State, Baylor looks to be heading in the right direction.

TCU’s struggles have been well documented, and now that its back is against the wall, all hands are going to be on deck this upcoming Saturday.

TCU’s Owned The "Revivalry"

Nov 19, 2022; Waco, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs place kicker Griffin Kell (39) and his teammates celebrate the victory over the Baylor Bears after Kell kicks the game winning field goal against the Bears as time expires at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The good news for TCU is that this rivalry has largely belonged to the Frogs since joining the Big 12 in 2012. Over that span, TCU holds a 9-4 advantage over Baylor, including a 4-2 mark in Fort Worth. Head coach Sonny Dykes is 2-1 against the Bears during his time in charge, continuing the program’s recent dominance in the series. Overall, TCU leads 59-54-7 in a matchup that dates all the way back to 1899.

Despite the recent success, all indications point toward this game being tight. Both squads have offenses that can be potent and put up points — Baylor ranks 20th in the country in scoring offense at 35.2 points per game, while TCU ranks 25th at 34 points per game. Pair that with defenses that haven’t always been the most reliable, and this game has all the ingredients to be an explosive shootout that comes down to the wire.

It’s cliché, but this game could come down to which quarterback plays better. When at their best, Sawyer Robertson and Josh Hoover are two of the best signal-callers in the Big 12 (if not the country), though both have “wild boy” tendencies that can lead them to be erratic at times. Regardless, one glance at the numbers tells you that TCU is going to have its hands full with Robertson, as he’s put up 2,058 yards passing with 19 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He’s the heart and soul of that offense, and how he goes is how Baylor goes.

Neither of these teams enjoys running the football. TCU ranks 119th nationally in run play percentage at just 43.4%, while Baylor sits even lower at 125th with 41.3%. This matchup will likely come down to which offense can sling it through the air more effectively.

That doesn’t mean the ground game won’t matter, though. The Frogs abandoned the run far too early against Kansas State, despite its success; Kevorian Barnes rushed for 81 yards and averaged 6.8 per carry. Meanwhile, TCU fans haven’t forgotten Baylor running back Bryson Washington, who torched them in Waco last year with 196 yards and four touchdowns. He hasn’t been as explosive this season, but he’s still someone defensive coordinator Andy Avalos and the Horned Frog defense are going to need to keep an eye on.

Regardless of what the stats say or how this game is expected to unfold, the bottom line for TCU is simple: if the Frogs want to keep chasing their goal of competing for a Big 12 title, they have to beat Baylor. At the very least, they need to show that the negative narratives swirling after the Kansas State loss were just a temporary blemish, a bug on the windshield that can be wiped away. The quickest way to do that? Handle business against the Bears.

TCU will take on Baylor in Fort Worth on Oct. 18 at 11 a.m. CT.