TCU's Latest Bowl Projection Keeps the Horned Frogs Close to Home

The Horned Frogs may not have to travel all that far for their postseason game.

Nov 22, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs linebacker Kaleb Elarms-Orr (3) celebrates after a Houston Cougars missed field goal attempt during the fourth quarter at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

College football’s postseason is just around the bend, and the good news is that TCU will be participating in it for the second consecutive season. The bad news is that it won’t be attending the postseason game it set out to play in prior to the start of the campaign: the Big 12 Championship Game.

That’s obviously disappointing. This season has fallen well short of the expectations that the program and its fan base has for itself, which means that next year it’s important to get back on the horse and ride all the way to Arlington. And even though that’s not happening in 2025, where the Horned Frogs will play their bowl game is still an intriguing question.

TCU Won’t Have to Travel Far

Fans watch as aircraft perform a flyover before the Armed Forces Bowl football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the Navy Midshipmen at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas, Friday, Dec. 27, 2024. Navy won 21-20. | BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Throughout the back half of the regular season, various options have been thrown around. For a while, TCU appeared bound to play in one of the Big 12’s higher-level bowl games like the Alamo Bowl or the Texas Bowl. Those two probably aren’t likely anymore due to TCU, well, losing football games.

Instead, TCU Horned Frogs On SI projects the Horned Frogs to play in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl against Army on Jan. 2. That’s all well and good, but the juicy part is the location. You see, the Armed Forces Bowl is played at none other than TCU’s own Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. How about them apples?

To be clear, this projection is assuming TCU wins against Cincinnati on Saturday afternoon. That presumption is being made based on the fact that the Frogs are — as of Nov. 25 — 4.5-point favorites against the Bearcats. Should TCU fall to Cincinnati — a prospect that is extremely likely given the team’s recent efforts — then the Frogs could be headed elsewhere.

Where Else Could the Horned Frogs Go?

Photos from #22 Army vs. Louisiana Tech in the Radiance Technology Independence Bowl on Saturday, December 28, 2024, in Shreveport, LA | Paul Karge/The Shreveport Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Various other outlets have projected TCU to travel to Memphis to play in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl against an opponent like Tulane or Memphis. Playing in this game would most definitely draw more eyeballs than what would essentially be a home bout against an Army squad that lost to FCS powerhouse Tarleton State earlier this season.

There’s also a shot that a spot in the Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl could open up. That game would be on Dec. 30 and would pit the Horned Frogs against a team like Old Dominion or Western Kentucky, at least according to some projections.

The Big 12 Could Have Two Teams in the College Football Playoff

As things currently stand, it doesn’t appear likely that the Big 12 gets two teams in the College Football Playoff, though there is a path should BYU conquer the giant that is Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game on Dec. 6. However, that matchup isn’t set in stone. The Cougars still need to beat UCF, and the Red Raiders have to win against West Virginia.

If Texas Tech takes that rematch, then it’ll be a top-five seed in the CFP. Should BYU win, though, then the outlook becomes a little less certain. TCU Horned Frogs On SI currently projects Texas Tech to be the lone representative from the conference, but a BYU win in the title game would alter that forecast.