Texas Tech vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff score prediction, matchup breakdown
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The Texas Tech Red Raiders football team are heavy favorites in Week 1 in front of their home crowd, which is no surprise for a top-25 team hosting an FCS program. However, 2024 was a harrowing reminder that college football is where expectations fall and chaos rises, with the Red Raiders winning against Abilene Christian in overtime, 52-51.
The sports books have Texas Tech as more than seven-touchdown favorites over the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions, coming in as a 52.5-point favorite on DraftKings. The game is not currently available on FanDuel or ESPN Bet.
Since the FBS-FCS split in 1978, the Golden Lions have never beaten an FBS team, going 0-12. Since 2020, they have played four games against FBS programs, losing all four.
Aug. 29, 2024: 70-0 loss at Arkansas
Aug. 31, 2023: 42-7 loss at Tulsa
Sept. 17, 2022: 63-7 loss at Oklahoma State
Oct. 23, 2021: 45-3 loss at Arkansas
Meanwhile, Texas Tech is 27-1 all-time against FCS opponents, losing against North Texas 29-24 in 1988 before they joined the FBS in 1995. Under head coach Joey McGuire, the Red Raiders are 3-0 against FCS opponents and 5-0 since 2020, though there have been several close calls.
Aug. 31, 2024: 52-51 win vs. Abilene Christian
Sept. 16, 2023: 41-3 win vs. Tarleton State
Sept. 3, 2022: 63-10 win vs. Murray State
Sept. 11, 2021: 28-22 win vs. Stephen F. Austin
Sept. 12, 2020: 35-33 win vs. Houston Baptist
While on the surface the Red Raiders have faced some scares against FCS programs, the Abilene Christian Wildcats and Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks ended their seasons as top-25 teams and FCS playoff participants, proving their mettle.
The Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions have been less than dominant in recent seasons. They finished 2-9 and 3-9 in 2023 and 2024, respectively, leaving head coach Alonzo Hampton with a 5-18 record (3-13 in conference play) heading into Year 3.
There is certainly concern with Texas Tech's outlook in Week 1, as the team is starting 10 transfers in Week 1 — three on offense and seven on defense — and the team may not be as cohesive in the season opener as they plan to be when conference play rolls around.
As well, the Red Raiders are nationally recognized in the preseason top-25 poll by both the AP and the coaches for the first time in 17 years, showing their is a national consensus that Texas Tech has a better roster than in seasons past when it started slow against FCS foes.
Combined with Arkansas-Pine Bluff's less-than-impressive track record in recent seasons (average point differential of almost -12 points in 2024), Texas Tech should start the season with a comfortable victory.
Score prediction: 52-7 Texas Tech
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Jordan Epp is a journalist who graduated from Texas A&M in 2022 and is passionate about telling stories, sharing news, and finding ways to entertain people through the medium of sports. He has formerly worked as a writer and editor at The Battalion and The Eagle, covering football in College Station, Texas, and served as the managing editor for PFSN.
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