Updated Bracketology Makes Texas' Path Clear for NCAA Tournament Berth

The Texas Longhorns suffered one of their worst losses of the season on Wednesday night, falling 105-85 to the Arkansas Razorbacks.

As of last night, the Longhorns are projected to be one of the last four teams to receive a bye in the NCAA Tournament.

While the program is expected to receive an at-large bid no matter what happens in the next week, this isn't exactly the time for Texas to get comfortable.

The Path for Texas is Clear

Texas A&M Aggies guard Ali Dibba pressures Texas Longhorns guard Jordan Pope during the second half at Reed Arena. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Despite the loss, it seems pretty cut and dry what the Longhorns need to do in order to secure a bid in the NCAA Tournament. Win, and you're in.

In Joe Lunardi's latest ESPN Bracketology, the Longhorns are among the "First Four Byes" with one game left in the regular season, meaning Texas is currently avoiding the dreaded "First Four."

Texas hosts the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday in the regular-season finale. With a win, the Longhorns would secure a 10-8 record in SEC play and would keep themselves above the bubble.

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— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 5, 2026

A one-and-done scenario in the SEC Tournament certainly wouldn't help but it might not hurt either. The Longhorns will only be pushing themselves further into NCAA Tournament contention if they can stack a few wins in Nashville.

Dailyn Swain has been the most consistent producer for the Longhorns, and Texas will need him at his best if the team wants any chance of advancing in March.

But against the Razorbacks, who routinely score above 90 points per game, the Longhorns clearly could have used some defensive depth, which has been the team's biggest weakness this season.

Closing the Regular Season Strong Still Matters

Jan 21, 2026; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Texas Longhorns forward Dailyn Swain (3) celebrates after center Matas Vokietaitis (8) scores a basket during the first half against the Kentucky Wildcats at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Texas can't afford to let Wednesday's loss travel with them back to Austin. The Longhorns are still on track for an at-large bid, but finishing the regular season strong is about more than just getting in — it's about building momentum at the right time.

Miller's squad will get a prime opportunity to regain some confidence this weekend as they host the Oklahoma Sooners to close the regular season. Texas handled business against the Sooners midway through SEC conference play, and will get the opportunity to sweep their rival on Saturday with a home crowd.

That's the kind of win that can fuel a deep run in both the SEC Tournament and March Madness as well. While Texas might be searching for answers right now, they have a roster that's capable of making some serious noise in March.