3 Bold Predictions for No. 16 Texas vs. No. 3 Texas A&M

With Thanksgiving comes the tradition of one of the greatest rivalries in all of college football, the Lone Star Showdown. A long-standing rivalry matchup between the two flagship programs in the state of Texas, featuring the Texas Longhorns and the Texas A&M Aggies.

The Longhorns need a win to force their way back into the College Football Playoff conversation and a win over their biggest rival to spoil the Aggies' quest for a perfect season. With pettiness already flying between the two teams, the game will feature the best from both staffs, with the hope of proving they are still the top program in the state.

With vitriol between the two teams as a guarantee, here are three bold predictions for the Lone Star Showdown.

Arch Manning Will Be the Best Quarterback in the Matchup

Arch Manning, Texas Longhorns — Nov 22, 2025; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) warms up before a game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Both quarterbacks in this game are viewed completely differently, with the Longhorns' signal-caller, Arch Manning, deemed a bust for the program, despite having better statistics than the Aggies' quarterback, Marcel Reed. Manning has 11 more passing yards, one fewer interception, and a completion percentage 0.7 points higher than his counterpart, yet Reed is a Heisman favorite, and Manning is viewed as a bust.

Despite that, Manning has been electric as of late, throwing for over 320 yards in three of the last four games with an 11 touchdown to two interception ratio. The primary difference between the two programs lies in their respective offenses, which feature Manning and his supporting cast for the Longhorns and Reed and his supporting cast for the Aggies. If the Longhorns want to win for the second year in a row, Manning will have to be at his best.

Penalty Records Could be Broken

Steve Sarkisian, Texas Longhorns — Nov 19, 2022; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian reacts after a penalty during the first half against the Kansas Jayhawks at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

This one may be a bit of a stretch, but it is definitely in the realm of possibilities of outcomes for the 2025 Lone Star Showdown. Both the Longhorns and Aggies rank in the bottom 20 of FBS teams in penalty yards per game, and are the two worst teams in this category, with the Aggies averaging 64.73 and the Longhorns averaging 65.91.

Together, they combine for 15 penalties per game and 130.64 yards per game. While the NCAA records are far from that, with 36 combined penalties in a game and 421 yards penalized in a game, both teams will be playing with a bit of extra motivation that could cause tempers to flare and mental lapses to occur at an exaggerated rate.

The Longhorns Win the Turnover Battle

Anthony Hill Jr., Texas Longhorns — Oct 11, 2025; Dallas, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. (0) celebrates during the game between the Texas Longhorns and the Oklahoma Sooners at the Cotton Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

When it comes to takeaways, the Longhorns are one of the top teams in the country, ranking 31st with 1.6 takeaways per game this season. In contrast, the Aggies are among the FBS's worst teams at takeaways, ranking 103rd and averaging 0.9 takeaways per game.

On the other side of the ball, the Longhorns are the 10th-best team in giveaways, averaging only 0.7 per game, while the Aggies average half a giveaway more per game, with a rate of 1.2 per game. The Longhorns will need to win the turnover battle in this game, and with their defense and the Aggies' self-inflicted turnovers, they should secure the victory.

The Longhorns will host the Aggies on Nov. 28 at 6:30 p.m. CT