Texas vs. Kentucky Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Wednesday, Jan. 21

The Kentucky Wildcats have rebounded a bit from a slow start to the 2025-26 season, as they’ve won three games in a row to move to 12-6 this season.

Mark Pope’s team has a habit of falling behind early, and it has one-possession wins over LSU and Tennessee in its last two SEC games.

On Wednesday, the Wildcats host the Texas Longhorns, who knocked off No. 13 Alabama and No. 10 Vanderbilt before losing to Texas A&M in their last game. Texas, like Kentucky, is looking like a fringe team to make the NCAA Tournament.

KenPom has the Wildcats as the No. 24 team in its latest rankings while the Longhorns clock in at No. 41.

So, it’s not surprising that Kentucky is favored at home in this matchup.

Here’s a look at the odds, a key player to watch and my prediction for Wednesday night’s SEC clash.

Texas vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Texas +6.5 (-108)
Kentucky -6.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Texas: +250
Kentucky: -310

Total

153.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Texas vs. Kentucky How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Jan. 21
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Rupp Arena
How to Watch (TV): SEC Network
Texas record: 11-7
Kentucky record: 12-6

Texas vs. Kentucky Key Player to Watch

Otega Oweh, Guard, Kentucky

The Wildcats’ turnaround this season has been led by Oweh, one of the few players that remained from last season’s team.

The veteran guard is now averaging 15.3 points per game while shooting 49.3 percent from the field and 41.0 percent from beyond the arc at home, and he’s up to 15.6 points per game for the season while shooting 46.8 percent from the field.

In SEC play, Oweh has four games with at least 20 points, and he’s looking to bounce back from a 3-for-11 shooting day against Tennessee on Saturday.

I think Oweh’s recent emergence is huge for this Kentucky team that needs some leadership and direction if it wants to make the NCAA Tournament.

Texas vs. Kentucky Prediction and Pick

The Wildcats have struggled mightily early on in games on the road this season, and I’m not totally sure that will completely disappear at home on Wednesday night.

Kentucky has fallen behind by 16 or more in the first half of every road game this season.
— Steven Peake (@StevenPeakeKSR) January 17, 2026

Kentucky already has a home SEC loss to Missouri, and outside of a win over Mississippi State, it has either lost or won by one possession against SEC opponents this season.

So, I’m going to back Texas early on in this matchup, as the Longhorns have proven they can beat some of the best teams in the country, even though they’ve been inconsistent.

Texas outranks Kentucky in adjusted offensive efficiency (18th in the country), and I think it can hang in this game early on. While I don’t mind Texas to cover the spread, it is only 9-8 against the number in the 2025-26 season.

Instead, I’ll continue to fade the Wildcats early on in games and bet on the Longhorns to keep this game within a possession by halftime.

Pick: Texas First Half +3.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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