NFL Draft Expert Breaks Down Where Texas QB Arch Manning Needs to Improve in 2025

In The McShay Report, the NFL Draft expert discusses Manning's tape and the expectations for his development as the redshirt sophomore quarterback heads into his first season as a starter.

Dec 21, 2024; Austin, Texas, USA; Detailed view of the jersey of Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) against the Clemson Tigers during the CFP National playoff first round at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

In Monday edition's of The McShay Report, NFL Draft expert Todd McShay studies Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning, focusing on his tape and identifying what can be expected of him moving forward.

McShay came away impressed with Manning after analyzing the 70 plays PFF categorized as his "key plays." However, a full season at the helm of the Longhorns will produce consistent challenges for Manning, a situation he's never experienced before.

"We still need to see how Arch fares against top-level competition in the SEC next season—the game looked fast for him against Georgia in the regular season last year—but I really like what I’ve seen on balance thus far," McShay writes.

Sep 28, 2024; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) runs the ball in the second half against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images | Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

And what comes with being Texas' starter is being the focal point for defenses' preparation week in and week out. While he got a taste of what defenses might throw at him when he stepped in during Quinn Ewers' injury -- facing UL Monroe and Mississippi State -- this season is a whole new test.

"Now that he’s the guy, he needs to prove that he can handle the pressure of being the team’s leader and learning full installments on a weekly basis," McShay writes. "Questions certainly remain—How will he adjust when SEC coordinators identify his tendencies? Will he improve his internal clock? How consistent will he be when he finds success?—as they would with any player at this stage of his career."

The questions McShay raises will be answered as he gains more time under center. In his college career thus far, Manning has played a mere 233 snaps, contextualizing what a full season under Manning's belt will do for his development.

McShay believes that Manning won't be a member of the 2026 draft class. His verdict is rooted in the fact that both of his uncles, Peyton and Eli, spent four years in college before entering the NFL -- a prioritization of development -- and that we've seen success from four-year college quarterbacks recently.

Whether or not he's planning to declare in 2026, Manning will be watched closely by the football world this season with the expectation that he's going to be a top draft pick in the next two years. The pressure is on -- arguably the most for any college football player in the country -- but McShay has faith in Manning as a player and prospect.

"I’m going to be betting on Arch’s talent and trusting that the improvements I observed across such a small sample size will continue compounding as he sees his role grow and responsibilities increase," McShay writes.

If there is an ideal place for an all-around talented quarterback to continue learning, growing and succeeding at the college level, it's in Austin, Texas with Steve Sarkisian.