Texas’ CFP Future Could Look Very Different After Reported 24-Team Expansion

The Texas Longhorns are on a narrow path to make it to the College Football Playoff in 2026.

Even with four top-20 wins under their belt, the Longhorns' margin for error, while larger than most teams with two losses, is still very slim with two losses already on their résumé.

That is, at least, according to the precedent set by the CFP over the last two years, in which no team with more than two losses has made the field.

However, regardless of what happens this season, that precedent is set to change in a major way in 2027.

According to an announcement from the College Football Playoff, a five-year agreement between the playoff and ESPN has been reached that will expand the field to 24 teams beginning next season (2027).

"The decision to expand was driven by a desire to increase opportunities for FBS programs, student-athletes and fan bases to participate in the Playoff and have a chance to play for the CFP National Championship, while new scheduling standards incentivize institutions to schedule more compelling non-conference matchups during the regular season," The CFP said in its statement. "The expanded format will feature 16 on-campus Playoff games, which will bring Playoff football to more students and local fans while providing a positive impact for campus communities."

As for how this massive change effects the Longhorns, it is simpler than you might think.

How expansion effects Texas' College Football Playoff Future

The College Football Playoff trophy sits on the sideline prior to the NCAA football game between the Texas Longhorns and the Ohio State Buckeyes | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Outside of the format, which we will explain shortly, the biggest changes to the playoffs come in the form of two things: 1) Margin for error and 2) regular season scheduling.

With the field being expanded to 24, the reality of suffering three or even four losses and still making the postseason is firmly a reality.

As it stands right now, six teams projected to be in the College Football Playoff top 25 already have three losses, with nine teams coming in with two losses. That's 15 eligible teams in a 24-team playoff field that are in danger of three or four losses, with three weeks left to go in the regular season.

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Obviously, this leads to the question of how the change will affect the pageantry and urgency of the regular season.

Well, the CFP powers that be have answered that too, and there is some good and bad.

The good news is that the playoff will require every team to schedule at least 10 games against Autonomy 4 (Power 4) Conference opponents or Notre Dame. Meaning schools like Indiana, for example, which hasn't played an Autonomy 4 non-conference game since 2023, will finally be forced to play a marquee non-conference game.

This aspect doesn't affect Texas much, of course, as they are scheduled to face Michigan in 2027 and Notre Dame in 2028 and 2029, over the next three seasons.

Of course, this expansion also comes at a negative cost as well, as it effectively eliminates conference title games, with the SEC already announcing that this will be the final season in which the SEC Championship will be played.

In other words, this 2026 will be the Longhorns final chance to win an SEC Title in Atlanta.

Everything that changed about the overall CFP Format

According the announcement the field has changed in the following ways:

4: the conference champions from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC (as determined by their respective conferences);
1: the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12, OR Sun Belt; and;
19: the 19 highest-ranked remaining teams in the CFP Selection Committee's final ranking

Of those 24 teams, the No. 1-No. 8 seeds will have a Round 1 bye, and then host their Round 2 matchup at home, while Seeds 9-16 will host games in Round 1 against teams seeded 17-24.

That means there will now be 16 total Playoff games played on campus through Round 1 and Round 2, as opposed to just four from the 12-team format.

Following the first two rounds, the games will be moved to the CFP Bowl partner venues: The Cotton Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Sugar Bowl.

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