Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners: Who Wins and Why?

One of the most exciting rivalries in all of college football, supported by the best atmosphere and stadium background in the sport, is ready to get underway in week six of the season.

The Texas Longhorns vs. the Oklahoma Sooners, the 122nd all-time meeting in the Red River Rivalry, features a script flipped from last year's matchup, with the Longhorns as the top-ranked team and the Sooners limping into the matchup in hopes of saving the season.

It is well known that anything can happen in a rivalry game, no matter what a team's record looks like. So what does the Texas Longhorns On SI staff believe will happen in the meeting?

Texas quarterback Arch Manning (16) celebrates after a college football game between Tennessee and Texas at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn. on Sept. 26, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Matt Galatzan

This has the potential to be one of the uglier versions of the Red River Rivalry we have seen in recent years. Both teams have elite defenses, and both teams have struggled offensively. The difference, however, is that the Texas offense has simply been inefficient, and can be fixed - especially after a bye week.

Oklahoma's, meanwhile, is broken, battered, and bruised. I do not see how this Sooners team finds any offensive success against Texas, unless John Mateer turns into Cam Newton overnight. I think it's a defensive contest, and Texas pulls away in the fourth quarter for a double-digit win. It also keeps Oklahoma's touchdown drought alive for three straight years.

Texas 24, Oklahoma 9

JD Andress

Texas Longhorns defensive end Colin Simmons (1) celebrates with the golden hat following the Red River Rivalry college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorn at the Cotton Bowl Stadium in Dallas, Texas, Saturday, Oct. 11, 2025. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Texas Longhorns are still looking for a spark on offense, and going against the Oklahoma Sooners' defense doesn't provide any cushion for that. Thankfully, the Sooners' offense is one-dimensional, struggling to run on the ground, putting the Longhorns defense in a perfect position to once again take over the game.

The Longhorns need to avoid turning the ball over, and Arch Manning should be able to do enough to get another win in the series.

Texas 28, Oklahoma 13

Zion Trammell

Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian takes a photo with players after the game against the Oklahoma Sooners at the Cotton Bowl. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This year's edition of Texas-Oklahoma highlights the defenses. The Longhorns and Sooners are both top-five in the SEC in points allowed. Field position and the turnover battle could decide this game. If Texas finds its offensive rhythm and Arch Manning protects the ball, it will be difficult for Oklahoma's offense to keep up.

I predict Cam Coleman gets fully unleashed on Saturday and the Longhorns win their third consecutive Red River Rivalry.

Texas 20, Oklahoma 10

Phoenix Haigis

Texas Longhorns defensive back Malik Muhammad (5) celebrates an interception intended for Oklahoma Sooners wide receiver Deion Burks (4) in the first half of the Red River Rivalry college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorn at the Cotton Bowl Stadium in Dallas, Texas, Saturday, Oct. 11, 2025. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

After being activated for the game against Tennessee dealing with a lower-leg/ankle injury. Texas running back Hollywood Smothers didn’t play in a single snap, clearly being cautious to not reaggravate the injury.

Now, with the bye week, Smothers has had two weeks to get back to full health for the Cotton Bowl against Oklahoma. With the assumption that Texas will be leading for the majority of this game, Texas’ RB1 should have plenty of opportunities to do what he hasn’t done so far this season and rush for over 100 yards.

Texas 27, Oklahoma 6

Carter Long

Texas head coach Stephen Sarkisian celebrates following the Red River Rivalry college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorn at the Cotton Bowl Stadium in Dallas, Texas, Saturday, Oct. 11, 2025. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Sooners' defense is very good, and their offense has weapons, Texas' run defense is going to feast on early downs and make John Mateer's life miserable. Expect a somewhat sloppy game with at least three combined turnovers.

Texas 26, Oklahoma 17

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