Texas vs. Texas State Prediction: Who Wins and Why?

After a long offseason filled with talking points about the mountain of expectations surrounding the Texas Longhorns, the 2026 season is officially here and it's time for the program to get a chance to return a national championship to Austin.

For head coach Steve Sarkisian and his team, while everyone is looking ahead to the looming week two matchup against the Ohio State Buckeyes, the Longhorns will first need to take care of business against a sneaky good Texas State Bobcats team.

While GJ Kinne and talented quarterback Brad Jackson begin the year looking for one of the greatest upsets of the decade, the Longhorns are much too talented, and would need a collossal breakdown in week one to limp into week two with a loss already.

A Pending Quarterback Duel Determines the Game

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) runs with the ball against the Michigan Wolverines during the first half at Camping World Stadium | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Longhorns are no stranger to opening up the football season with a tough test to properly gauge where the team is at. Last season was the thrilling matchup against the No. 2 ranked Buckeyes, and this year they face off against arguably the best Group of Six head coach and quarterback combination in Kinne and Jackson.

Jackson, who finished his second year in San Marcos with 3,224 yards, with an impressive 21 passing touchdowns to just seven interceptions, while also adding 744 rushing yards with 17 touchdowns on the ground. For comparison sake, his passing numbers were better than Texas A&M Aggies quarterback Marcel Reed, who was in the Heisman conversation during the season because of his play.

Now he faces off against Manning, and more importantly, the new look defense in year one under defensive coordinator Will Muschamp, who is not scared to put pressure in Jackson's face in the pocket.

While Muschamp is new in town, and many will be wondering what the defense looks like in the Forty Acres, Manning will be surrounded by one of the most talented offenses in the country, and in Sarkisian's offensive scheme, which is capable of using any of them at any given time, the offensive prescense should be suffocating in this one.

While the Longhorns have plenty of new faces on both sides of the ball, the talent level is just too high in this matchup.

Jackson might be able to make a few things work that keep the matchup from being a true blowout, and everything that has been heard from around the program saying no one is looking ahead in the Longhorns locker room, Sarkisian and company should get off to a 1-0 start while being able to workout some kinks before welcoming the Buckeyes to town.

Sign up to our free newsletter and follow us on Facebook, X and Instagram for the latest news.

Add us as a preferred source on Google