Texas State vs. Texas Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 1

Texas is a big favorite against Texas State in college football Week 1 action. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This is a pivotal season for the Texas Longhorns in more than one way. The Texas faithful are desperate for them to compete for a national championship, and their quarterback, Arch Manning, is looking to establish himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the country.

This season has a significant "now or never" feel to it for the Longhorns, which makes every game an important one for them. Thankfully, things should start relatively smoothly for them in Week 1 when they take on the Texas State Bobcats.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this game.

Texas State vs. Texas Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Spread

• Texas State +29.5 (-109)
• Texas -29.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Texas State N/A
• Texas N/A

Total

• OVER 59.5 (-109)
• UNDER 59.5 (-113)

Texas State vs. Texas How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, September 5
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Texas State record: 0-0
• Texas record: 0-0

Texas State vs. Texas Betting Trends

• Texas State is 3-7 against the spread in its past 10 games
• The OVER is 5-5 in Texas State's last 10 games
• Texas is 5-5 against the spread in its last 10 games
• The OVER is 6-4 in its last 10 games

Texas State vs. Texas Key Player to Watch

• Arch Manning, QB - Texas Longhorns

Arch Manning entered the 2025 season with high expectations, many thinking he'd be a Heisman contender. He started the season off rough, but recovered in the second half of the season, showing flashes of the quarterback we expected him to be. He finished the year completing 61.4% of passes for 3,163 yards, 26 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. His expectations are even higher this year. Can he take a step forward and improve in his junior season?

Texas State vs. Texas Prediction and Best Bet

Instead of betting on a side in this game, I'm going to look to the total and bet the OVER. The Texas State offense was underrated last season, ranking 35th in the country in adjusted EPA per play and 30th in offensive success rate. Defensively, they were 124th and 105th in those metrics.

Meanwhile, Manning was at his best last season when facing lesser competition. I think he'll thrive in Week 1, and then we'll find out how his season will go based on his Week 2 performance against Ohio State.

Let's set back and bet the OVER on Saturday.

Pick: OVER 59.5 (-109) via Caesars

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