UCLA Hangs by Thread in Latest March Madness Projections

The UCLA men's basketball team has just really begun the Big Ten portion of its schedule, but it's never too early to check in on where the Bruins' chances to make the NCAA Tournament stand.

UCLA has a rich history in the Tournament and has made the field four times under Mick Cronin, mounting a Cinderella run to the 2021 Final Four as an 11-seed and notably earning a 2-seed in 2023. However, the most recent projection released by ESPN's Joe Lunardi has the Bruins hanging by a thread.

UCLA NCAA Tournament — Jan 10, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; UCLA Bruins guard Donovan Dent (2) shoots over Maryland Terrapins forward Elijah Saunders (13) during the second half at Pauley Pavilion presented by Wescom Financial. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

UCLA's Draw

UCLA is part of Lunardi's "Last Four In" along with Texas A&M, Ohio State, and New Mexico. In the projected bracket, the Bruins, Aggies, Buckeyes, and Lobos narrowly overtook TCU, Creighton. LSU, and Baylor for those spots. Texas A&M and Ohio State are slated to play for an 11-seed in the South Region during the First Four, and UCLA takes on New Mexioc for the 12-seed in the Midwest region.

In this scenario, if the Bruins beat the Lobos, they would move on to face 5-seed Clemson in San Diego, with the winner getting either 4-seed Texas Tech or 13-seed UC-Irvine. It's honestly not a bad draw when considering the other regions, but a deep run in this projection could still also involve teams llke Michigan, Houston, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt.

Arkansas drops to a 6-seed in Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology. pic.twitter.com/IwZvIpz1Va
— JC Hoops (@JacksonCollier) January 13, 2026

The Rest of the Big Ten

The Big Ten leads all conferences with 11 teams in Lunardi's projected NCAA Tournament field, two more than the SEC. The conference has six teams easily in the field (Michigan, Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Iowa), three among Lunardi's "Last Four Byes" (Indiana, Wisconsin, and USC), and the previously mentioned two teams among the "Last 4 In."

Michigan is currently the top team in the Big Ten, claiming the No. 1 seed in the Midwest, although Lunardi believes the Wolverines have relinquished the No. 1 overall seed to Arizona. Purdue is next, followed by Illinois, Nebraska, and Michigan State as top-4 regional seeds. Iowa is considered an 8-seed and would play NC State.

Lunardi has all three "Last Four Byes" teams as No. 10 seeds. USC takes on Utah State, Wisconsin faces Rick Pitino's St. John's squad, and Indiana draws Georgia. There are no other Big Ten teams in the picture right now, so it will probably be capped at the 11 projected bids.

UCLA is the most vulnerable. Mick Cronin and company have work to do as conference play continues. They'll play three teams currently projected by Lunardi to make the field before the end of the month and have five opportunities against top-13 teams remaining.