Game-by-Game UCLA Football Predictions 2021
There's a lot at stake for the Bruins in 2021.
From coach Chip Kelly's future in Westwood to a last hurrah for countless super seniors, grad transfers and NFL prospects, UCLA football has a lot on the line this fall. The expectations are also higher than they have been since Kelly was hired in late 2017, as the Bruins are returning more production than almost any other Power Five program and were a combined 15 points away from going 7-0 in 2020.
Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, receiver Kyle Philips and tight end Greg Dulcich are on a handful of preseason award watch lists. Left tackle Sean Rhyan is fighting to become a day one draft pick. The defense returns 10 starters and has now been in assistant head coach Brian Norwood's system for over a year.
The stars are aligning for UCLA in a way they haven't in quite some time, and here is how All Bruins thinks that will show on the gridiron come the regular season.
Aug. 28 vs. Hawai'i: Win
Record to Date: 1-0
The Bruins have yet to win a season opener under Kelly, or a nonconference game.
Barring disaster, that should change in 2021.
That isn't to say Hawai'i is a cupcake opponent – its dual-threat quarterback Chevan Cordeiro could cause problems and coach Todd Graham is going to throw everything he has at this UCLA offense. Still, the Bruins boast the far more talented and experienced team, and they should be the heavy favorite to win this one.
Sept. 4 vs. LSU: Loss
Record to Date: 1-1
The Tigers are by no means unbeatable, it just seems a bit too optimistic to predict a Bruin win considering Kelly's 0-6 nonconference record since he got to town.
LSU went 5-5 last season, good for the school's worst winning percentage since 1999, and its streak of 20 consecutive bowl appearances was finally snapped. In addition to the on-the-field woes, coach Ed Orgeron is in hot water for allegedly not reporting sexual harassment allegations against running back Derrius Guice.
On one hand, running into a program that is at its worst is usually a recipe for success. On the other hand, LSU's worst is better than UCLA has been over the last few years, and it has now had a full year to recover from being gutted by the 2020 NFL Draft following their championship season.
It'll be a good game, just not one the Bruins should be expected to win.
Sept. 18 vs. Fresno State: Win
Record to Date: 2-1
In many ways, the Bruins' loss to the Bulldogs in 2018 was an all-time low for the team. In others, it was really only a sign of things to come.
UCLA lost to Fresno State 38-14 that season, in the third game of what wound up being an 0-5 start – now a usual occurrence for the Bruins under Kelly. Thompson-Robinson has come a long way since then, when he finished 10-for-24 with 151 yards and two interceptions, and the Bulldogs aren't the 12-2 Mountain West wagon they were under Jeff Tedford in 2017 and 2018 either.
Quarterback Jake Haener could have his moments a porous UCLA defense, just based on his 153.4 passer rating in 2020, but even if this game does turn into a track meet, the Bruins should still come out on top.
Sept. 25 at Stanford: Win
Record to Date: 3-1 (1-0 Pac-12)
Davis Mills and Simi Fehoko are the latest Stanford players to invade Bruin fans' nightmares, and luckily for UCLA, they're both in the NFL now.
Without that duo, the Cardinal don't stage a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Bruins in double overtime in 2020 and UCLA finishes 4-3. This rematch may be at Stanford as opposed to the Rose Bowl like it was last year, but with all the returning talent in house for the Bruins and the fact that UCLA won at Stanford Stadium in 2019, it should be UCLA's second win against Stanford in three years.
Oct. 2 vs. Arizona State: Win
Record to Date: 4-1 (2-0 Pac-12)
UCLA has had Arizona State's number for the past couple seasons, and the Bruins have actually done a good job containing Jayden Daniels.
His numbers from the 2019 matchup look alright on the surface, but most of his production came in a garbage time fourth quarter. UCLA is at home for this one and Thompson-Robinson has a chance to outplay his dual-threat counterpart for the third year in a row.
Add in all the drama going on in Tempe, and the Bruins should be favorites in this one as well.
Oct. 9 at Arizona: Win
Record to Date: 5-1 (3-0 Pac-12)
The Bruins will hit the midseason point with their easiest game of the conference slate.
Arizona is probably the least talented team in the Pac-12, and with Washington State and Oregon State not in the rotation for UCLA this fall, the Wildcats stand to be the biggest punching bag in the Bruins' way. That doesn't mean this one is an absolute lock, but it's as close as UCLA is going to get to one in conference play.
Oct. 16 at Washington: Loss
Record to Date: 5-2 (3-1 Pac-12)
The back half of UCLA's schedule is significantly more strenuous than the first, and it will more than likely start off with a loss in Seattle.
Wins have been hard to come by for the Bruins against the Huskies as of late, especially on the road. In the last decade, Washington owns the series lead 3-2 and is 2-1 at home. The Brett Hundley teams from 2013 and 2014 were the only ones to best the Huskies in that span, and looking at the momentum and expectations Washington has, it will be quite the tall task to match those Bruins' lone victory at Husky Stadium.
Oct. 23 vs. Oregon: Win
Record to Date: 6-2 (4-1 Pac-12)
While the Ducks are the highest-ranked opponent on the Bruins schedule at the moment, it wouldn't take much for an upset.
Just last year, UCLA went up to Eugene and lost by three points with Thompson-Robinson and eight other players out due to COVID-19 protocols. If it weren't for a failed Hail Mary by Chase Griffin at the end of the first half that turned into a pick six, the Bruins very well could have won.
With all the starters back for this one, which is taking place at the Rose Bowl, UCLA is in a great position to topple the Pac-12 favorites.
Oct. 30 at Utah: Loss
Record to Date: 6-3 (4-2 Pac-12)
This three-game stretch of at Washington, Oregon and at Utah is going to define UCLA's season.
3-0 is pretty much a pipe dream and 2-1 is a big win. 0-3 is a disaster, while 1-2 should be just enough to stay afloat after starting hot. Heading to Salt Lake City to round out this gauntlet is not going to work in the Bruins' favor at all.
Utah has won each of the last four matchups between the two teams, the last three of which came with an average margin of victory of 36 points. This UCLA team is too good to get absolutely stomped like that, but don't be surprised if this is the one game this season that ends up being a wire-to-wire win for the Bruins' opponent.
Nov. 13 vs. Colorado: Win
Record to Date: 7-3 (5-2 Pac-12)
The Buffaloes were blowing the Bruins out for one half, and then the offense woke up.
It was too little, too late for UCLA's comeback effort in Boulder last year, and that made the second quarter disaster sting even more. Now that they're back in Pasadena, however, the Bruins should get a big bump – UCLA is 7-1 all-time against Colorado in home games.
Even coming off a tough middle of the season stretch, the Bruins will have more momentum and cohesion heading into this game than they did going into the 2020 season opener, so this should be a good revenge game for UCLA.
Nov. 20 at USC: Loss
Record to Date: 7-4 (5-3 Pac-12)
Unlike the Stanford heartbreaker, the USC one might not get avenged this fall.
The Trojans again bring in a bunch of great recruits and a top-tier receiver room to go along with quarterback Kedon Slovis and all the allure that comes with their brand. The mistakes that cost the Bruins a crosstown victory in 2020 should certainly be cleaned up by now, but with the talent on the Trojans' roster, it was honestly a miracle UCLA was up by 12 points heading into the fourth quarter.
The Bruins won't blow a late double-digit lead again in 2021, but that's partially because they probably won't have one to begin with this time around.
Nov. 27 vs. California: Win
Record to Date: 8-4 (6-3 Pac-12)
Even with a sketchy start, the Bruins earned a nice, breezy win over the Bears last year.
Chase Garbers looked pedestrian at best, and UCLA ran away with it by three scores. These season finale in-state rivalry games almost never end up as blowouts like that early-season matchup from last year, so don't expect that to happen again, even if the talent balance tipping heavily in the Bruins' favor.
Instead, without postseason eligibility or a Pac-12 South title at stake at this point in the season, UCLA won't be playing for much, and California might see an opening to pounce. It won't be enough for the Bears to steal a win like they did in the 2019 season finale, though, so the Bruins can ride whatever momentum they gain here into a pretty solid bowl game.
Eight wins and a 6-3 Pac-12 record is a good finish for UCLA, even if this does seem like a local maximum on the chart of Kelly's tenure in town. A 2-4 record against teams in the preseason AP top 25 is respectable, and respectable is surely an improvement from where this team has been in the recent past.
With that finish, UCLA should make an appearance in either the Holiday Bowl, LA Bowl or Sun Bowl.
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