NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament 2022: UCLA March Madness Predictions
The Bruins' pursuit of banner No. 12 begins Thursday.
Of course, it has been 27 years since the last time UCLA men's basketball won an NCAA tournament. The Bruins' surprise trip to the Final Four as a No. 11 seed in 2021 was their first since 2008, and they spent most of this season as a contender to make their way back.
The selection committee pegged UCLA as a No. 4 seed and provided them a first round matchup against No. 13 seed Akron. Should the Bruins win that one, they could have to face St. Mary's, Baylor, Kentucky or Purdue on their way through the East Region.
All Bruins is making its picks for how far UCLA will go and who they will beat on the way there, courtesy of Managing Editor Sam Connon and contributing writer Benjamin Royer.
Sam Connon, Managing Editor
Prediction: Lose in Elite Eight to Purdue
If UCLA loses to Akron, something is seriously wrong.
The Zips weren't even all that good by MAC standards – they just slowed things down and played good enough defense to warrant the low-possession games against mid-major opponents. The Bruins, even though they play quickly on average, excel in slower games and should dispose of their first round opponent rather easily.
St. Mary's boasts a top-10 defense in the KenPom, but they also run things exceedingly slow. This game could technically go either way, but again, UCLA simply has too much talent to fall to a fundamental, under-skilled team that relies on slowing things down to grind out wins.
A Sweet 16 matchup with Baylor is the real crux of the tournament for the Bruins. If they can make it past the Bears, they've proven they're legitimate title contenders.
Under normal circumstances, Baylor would pose a really though matchup for UCLA. But big man Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua is out and top-scoring guard LJ Cryer is out for at least the first weekend of the tournament.
Take away some of the Bears' scoring and defensive length, and the Bruins all of a sudden have a much better chance to pull off the upset. Tall guards Kendall Brown and Matthew Mayer and volume scorer James Akinjo will make things difficult, but I think UCLA can do it.
The one profile that has really given the Bruins trouble this season has been long, athletic teams that play multiple impact bigs and put up a lot of points. Most notably, that made Arizona and Gonzaga tough matchups for UCLA.
Purdue fits that bill as well.
Of course, the situation where UCLA plays the Boilermakers in the Elite Eight is dependent on them beating Kentucky in the Sweet 16, and that will be a great game regardless of who comes out on top. But in this theoretical scenario, let's say Purdue wins that presumably tight contest.
The Boilermakers have the No. 1 tempo-adjusted offense in the country, according to Bart Torvik's T-Rank metric, and they rank No. 3 in KenPom offense. Center Zach Edey is 7-foot-4 and forward Trevion Williams is 6-foot-10, while guard Jaden Ivey averages 17.4 points per game.
Yes, UCLA may top Purdue in the NET, KenPom, RPI, BPI and BARTHAG, but on a matchup level, the Boilermakers may be in a position to beat the Bruins and prevent them from reaching back-to-back Final Fours to open the decade.
If Kentucky wins in the Sweet 16, national player of the year contender Oscar Tshiebwe will be the next big man to dominate UCLA and TyTy Washington will help lead the Wildcats' potent offense. Either way, it seems the Bruins' road will end on the second night of action in Philadelphia.
Benjamin Royer, contributing writer
Prediction: Lose in Sweet 16 to Baylor
A year removed from the Final Four, UCLA returns to March, this time with expectations sky high compared to 2021.
The underdog Bruins are now one of the top dogs to beat in the East region and are also a top-10 team per the KenPom and NET rankings.
I could be wrong and UCLA could work its way to the Final Four once again – Johnny Juzang could become a college basketball celebrity in back-to-back years and the “never say die” mindset of last season’s magic may return. However, the likelihood of all three situations happening is very low.
A solid end to the season is not out of the question though. Entering the Sweet 16 would be a success for UCLA in just their second tournament appearance under coach Mick Cronin, and in a highly competitive 2022 field on top of that.
Where the Bruins’ tournament can really start or end would be with Baylor — a matchup which would be reminiscent of UCLA’s battles with fellow No. 1 seeds Gonzaga and Arizona. Out of the three total games against the Bulldogs and Wildcats, the Bruins went 1-2, and the one win came against an Azuolas Tubelis-less Arizona.
If UCLA wants to move farther along into March and possibly even April, it will need to hope that Baylor falls in the second round to Marquette or North Carolina.
As well as manifesting Baylor’s demise, the Bruins will need to slow down their tempo. Last year, UCLA ranked No. 286 in team possessions per game, but in 2022, the blue and gold are No. 183 in the nation.
Cronin has made it clear about his desire for UCLA to move quicker on offense, but to win in March, the slugfests need to return.
Last campaign’s Sweet 16 and Elite Eight victories over Alabama and Michigan would not have been possible without the Bruins' scrappy defense, forcing both contests to be played with the style introduced under Cronin.
Not to mention, rotations with Jaylen Clark and Myles Johnson on the floor would improve the Bruins’ chances of victory in the tournament. Their defensive presences open up avenues that are unable to be exploited without them being involved on the court.
An earlier-than-expected exit may be poorly received by Bruins fans, but take solace in the fact that UCLA has returned to prominence and should stay in the spotlight for years to come.
Follow Connon on Twitter at @SamConnon
Follow Royer on Twitter at @thebenroyer
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