Previewing UCLA Men's Basketball's Upcoming Offseason Roster Moves
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A changing of the guards is underway in Westwood.
UCLA men's basketball missed out on its chance to win national championship No. 12 after losing to Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 on Thursday night. As the final buzzer sounded, the Bruins' offseason tipped off, and they will be without some real program mainstays moving forward.
Guards David Singleton and Russell Stong IV are the only ones who are out of eligibility, meaning they won't be returning to UCLA next season. Point guard Tyger Campbell and guard/forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. each have one year of eligibility remaining due to the COVID-19 extensions, but they are not expected to come back.
Next up are a handful of top underclassmen, who could also bring their collegiate careers to a close.
Guard Jaylen Clark hurt his Achilles in the regular season finale against Arizona on March 4, and he missed both the conference and NCAA tournaments as a result. The Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year underwent surgery not long after, and it remains to be seen how long he will be out.
Clark's NBA Draft stock was hard to pin down before his injury, but now it appears very unlikely that he hears his name called in either round come June. Still, Clark could elect to turn pro and hope a team takes a flier on him as an undrafted free agent, giving him an opportunity to rehab with professional training staffs the way Chris Smith did in 2021.
If Clark were to return for his senior year, it's undetermined how many games he would be able to play, or how close he would be to 100% athletically. There is a scenario, where Clark's stock is actually higher now than it would be one year from now, even when he would presumably be healthier. Then, he might have to return for a fifth year to take his profile beyond where it is at a moment, pushing the start of his professional career two years down the road in the process.
Regardless of which path Clark decides to go down – he posted on Instagram on Sunday that he had some decisions to announce this week – it's safest to draw up next year's lineup without him.
Guard Amari Bailey and center Adem Bona are also potential NBA Draft early entrants, and their stock may have flip-flopped over the past month.
Bona closed out the regular season by winning Pac-12 Freshman of the Year, but he hurt his shoulder in the conference tournament semifinals on March 10. That injury cost him three of UCLA's next four games, and there is a chance he needs surgery to fix it up in the offseason.
If the injury or a potential surgery were to limit him in upcoming NBA workouts or the NBA Draft Combine itself, Bona may not get a first round grade.
Bailey, on the other hand, was banged up and not exactly taking the Pac-12 by storm through most of the season. Once the postseason rolled around, though, Bailey took his game to another level.
In addition to flashing the athleticism that made him a top recruit to begin with, Bailey averaged 17.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.3 steals per game on .561/.467/.821 shooting splits in six starts between the conference and NCAA tournaments.
Those games were all high-profile contests that likely caught the attention of scouts and GMs across the country, putting Bailey back in the conversation for the first round grade most expected he had in the preseason.
Bona and Bailey could both turn pro, or they could both stay – it's still hard to tell which way they're leaning. Neither seems dying to make the leap for financial reasons, and they would both likely make solid NIL earnings if they were to stay.
If the freshman duo comes back, they would both become go-to options for coach Mick Cronin. The opposite could come to fruition as well, however, and Cronin may have to start his rotation from scratch.
There is a non-zero chance that UCLA loses its top-six rotation players, plus big man Kenneth Nwuba, who could elect not to use his final year of eligibility. There is also the case of Mac Etienne, a former four-star recruit who has logged limited minutes with the Bruins due to inexperience, a major ACL injury and a crowded frontcourt.
That leaves young players like point guard Dylan Andrews, guard Will McClendon and guard/forward Abramo Canka. Three four-star class of 2023 recruits have signed on as well – guard Sebastian Mack, forward Brandon Williams and big man Devin Williams.
Those six players are young, quick and athletic – outside of McClendon, who has yet to regain the juice he had coming out of high school due to a torn ACL of his own 18 months ago – but there isn't much returning production in that group, and there would be plenty of scholarships left to hand out.
Maybe UCLA can seal the deal with French wing Ilane Fibleuil, who came to Westwood for a visit back in December. That would give Cronin another body, but still not an experienced one.
That's when the staff will likely hit the transfer portal hard, looking for either a shooting wing or a more traditional big man – potentially both, depending on what happens with Bona, Nwuba and Etienne. Harvard forward Chris Ledlum, Towson guard Nick Timberlake and Temple guard Khalif Battle have all reportedly heard from the Bruins, while USC guard Reese Dixon-Waters and Oregon center Kel'el Ware could be potential targets as well.
The worst case scenario for UCLA would involve Jaquez, Campbell, Clark, Bona and Bailey all leaving, and either Nwuba or Etienne moving on as well. Trust that the staff would go all out for Fibleuil and a transfer in that case, since the roster would be unbearably thin if they didn't.
A starting lineup of Devin Williams, Fibleuil, a transfer, Mack and Andrews with McClendon, Canka, Brandon Williams and either Nwuba or Etienne coming off the bench would not be ideal, even though it could represent an intriguing foundation for an ongoing rebuild.
UCLA could avoid that rebuild if Bona and Bailey decide to come back, giving them a starting lineup of Bona, Fibleuil, a transfer, Bailey and Andrews. With Mack, Devin Williams, Brandon Williams, Canka, McClendon and either Nwuba or Etienne coming off the bench, the Bruins would suddenly have a contending team that boasts top-level talent and admirable depth.
The next few months will decide which end of the spectrum UCLA will end up on heading into next year – a rebuild or a retooling.
Players have until April 13 to declare for the NBA Draft, and until June 1 to pull back out and retain NCAA eligibility. The transfer portal is open from March 13 to May 11.
A lot can go down between now and then, and the decisions coming up will directly impact how UCLA looks moving forward.
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