USC's Updated NCAA Tournament Projection Following Fifth Straight Loss

The USC Trojans suffered their fifth straight loss, falling 82-67 to the No. 12 Nebraska Cornhuskers on Saturday at the Galen Center. Following another disappointing loss, what are the Trojans' NCAA Tournament chances?

Feb 21, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Eric Musselman reacts against the Oregon Ducks in the second half at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The late-season misery continues for the USC Trojans, as they suffered their fifth straight loss on Saturday at the Galen Center. With their NCAA Tournament hopes at stake, the Trojans 82-67 loss to the Nebraska Cornhuskers put USC’s hopes of reaching March Madness in their second season under coach Eric Musselman in even more jeopardy. 

Nebraska forward Pryce Sandfort put on another extraordinary performance for the Cornhuskers in the win over USC, scoring 32 points, six rebounds, and two assists, on 12-of-21 shooting from the field, including knocking down five three-pointers. USC led Nebraska 36-31 at halftime, but the Cornhuskers dominated the Trojans in the second half as a 15-0 scoring run helped seal the win for coach Fred Hoiberg's group.

Jan 31, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans guard Chad Baker-Mazara (4) enters the couert before the game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at the Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

USC guard Chad Baker-Mazara led the Trojans in a game where the Trojans struggled from three, shooting 19 percent from beyond the arc. Baker-Mazara scored 14 points, one rebound, and an assist in the loss.

With the loss, the Trojans fall to 18-11 overall and are now 7-11 in Big Ten play. USC’s loss to Nebraska now guarantees the Trojans a losing record in conference play when their regular season concludes on Mar. 7 against UCLA.

The Trojans have two regular-season matchups remaining on the road against the Washington Huskies and a home game with the UCLA Bruins. With those games remaining and the Big Ten tournament approaching, what are the Trojans' chances of earning a spot in March Madness for the first time since the 2022-23 season?

USC Trojans NCAA Touranament Outlook

Feb 24, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California head coach Eric Musselman communicates during the first half against the UCLA Bruins at Pauley Pavilion presented by Wescom Financial. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images | Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

According to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology projections, the Trojans are in the next four out, along with the Virginia Tech Hokies, Cincinnati Bearcats, and the Seton Hall Pirates. Teams ahead of USC in the first four out include the San Diego State Aztecs, Ohio State Buckeyes, California Golden Bears, and the VCU Rams.

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California’s brutal 72-56 home loss to an 11-win Pittsburgh Panthers team on Saturday helps USC’s chances, but the Ohio State Buckeyes have the advantage over the Trojans as they beat them 89-82 in Columbus on Feb. 11. The loss to Ohio State was the first of the Trojans current five-game losing streak. 

The Trojans would be satisfied if the Buckeyes lost their remaining games on their schedule, including in the Big Ten tournament. The Buckeyes currently post a 17-11 overall record and are 9-8 in conference play with games remaining against the No. 8 Purdue Boilermakers, Penn State Nittany Lions, and Indiana Hoosiers. 

How Trojans Get Back On Track

Feb 21, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Eric Musselman reacts against the Oregon Ducks in the second half at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

To earn a spot in March Madness, USC would benefit by winning its last two regular-season games and earning multiple victories in the Big Ten tournament. The first step for the Trojans to get back on track is on Wednesday in Seattle against the Washington Huskies. 

USC looks to avenge its 84-76 home loss to the Huskies back on Dec. 6 and avoid the regular-season sweep. The tip-off from Alaska Airlines Arena in Seattle between USC and Washington is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. PT on Wednesday, with the game broadcast on the Big Ten Network.