USC's Updated NCAA Tournament Projection Following Brutal Loss to UCLA

Following a brutal 81-62 road loss to the UCLA Bruins, the USC Trojans are in serious jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament. Where are the Trojans projected to land in the latest bracketology projections?

Feb 24, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California head coach Eric Musselman communicates during the first half against the UCLA Bruins at Pauley Pavilion presented by Wescom Financial. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images | Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

In a rivalry matchup with pivotal NCAA Tournament implications, the USC Trojans were dominated by their arch-rival, the UCLA Bruins, losing 81-62 on Tuesday night at the Pauley Pavilion. 

Fresh off his buzzer-beater shot in UCLA’s thrilling overtime win over the No. 10 Illinois Fighting Illini, UCLA guard Donovan Dent put on a phenomenal performance for the Bruins, scoring a season-high 30 points with seven assists and two rebounds on 10-of-16 shooting, while knocking down five three-pointers.  

Feb 24, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; UCLA Bruins guard Eric Freeny (8) shoots over Southern California Trojans guard Chad Baker-Mazara (4) during the second half at Pauley Pavilion presented by Wescom Financial. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images | Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

USC guard Chad Baker-Mazara led the Trojans in the loss, scoring 25 points with eight rebounds, two assists, and two blocks on 8-of-16 shooting from the field. With the rivalry defeat against UCLA, the Trojans have now lost four straight games and are in serious jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament in their second season under coach Eric Musselman.

The Trojans following the loss to UCLA, post an 18-10 overall record, and are 7-10 in Big Ten play. Posting a losing record in conference play is not a good sign for USC’s tournament resume. With three games remaining in the regular season, here’s a look at the Trojans tournament projection.

USC Trojans Tournament Projection

Feb 24, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California head coach Eric Musselman reacts to a foul call during the second half against the UCLA Bruins at Pauley Pavilion presented by Wescom Financial. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images | Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

According to CBS Sports’ bracketology following Tuesday night’s college basketball action, the Trojans are projected to be in the first four out for the tournament with a NET ranking of 58. Other teams in the first four out, per CBS Sports, include Seton Hall, New Mexico, and VCU.

ESPN's Joe Lunardi also has USC in the first four out with Ohio State, California, and San Diego State in his latest bracketology projections.

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— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) February 25, 2026

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USC has an advantage over Seton Hall if the final spot in the tournament potentially comes down to the Pirates and the Trojans. USC defeated Seton Hall 83-81 on Nov. 25 in the Maui Invitational Semifinal. 

The Trojans have three games remaining in the regular season and the Big Ten Tournament to make a late push to earn a spot in March Madness. USC is scheduled to play the No. 12 Nebraska Cornhuskers and UCLA Bruins at home. They will also face the Washington Huskies on the road. 

How USC Can Trojans Make NCAA Tournament

Feb 24, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans guard Alijah Arenas (0) drives to the basket past UCLA Bruins guard Donovan Dent (2) and forward Tyler Bilodeau (34) during the first half at Pauley Pavilion presented by Wescom Financial. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images | Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

To earn a spot in March Madness, the Trojans will likely need to win their remaining games in the regular season and go on a run in the Big Ten tournament. Earning a quality win against a Cornhuskers team that is considered one of the best in the Big Ten is the boost of confidence that the Trojans are desperate for following four straight losses. 

USC also can’t afford to take another loss to either UCLA or Washington, two teams that have already beaten them. As for the Big Ten tournament, making a deep run to the semifinals should be enough for the Trojans to get in the tournament if they win the majority of their three games to close the regular season.

USC looks to get out of the current slump that they are in the midst of with a quality win over the Cornhuskers at the Galen Center on Saturday. The tip-off between USC and Nebraska is scheduled for 1 p.m. PT with the game broadcast on the Big Ten Network.