All Trojans

Analyzing USC Trojans' Intriguing Betting Odds To Win Big Ten Title

The No. 21 USC Trojans have some mixed projections when it comes to their chances of winning the Big Ten Championship in 2025. Undefeated through four games, are USC coach Lincoln Riley and Trojans serious contenders for the conference title?
Charlie Viehl|
Oct 12, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley, left, talks with Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin on the field prior to the game at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
Oct 12, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley, left, talks with Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin on the field prior to the game at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

In this story:

Oregon DucksUSC TrojansOhio State BuckeyesPenn State Nittany LionsMichigan WolverinesIndiana Hoosiers

The No. 21 USC Trojans are 4-0 and climbing up the AP Top 25 Poll, and USC coach Lincoln Riley and his team look like legitimate threats to contend for a Big Ten Championship in 2025.

USC's Chances At Winning Big Ten Title

Heading into week 5, USC has the fifth best percentage chance of winning the Big Ten title, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). Here are the teams with the best chance of winning the conference:

1. Oregon Ducks: 26.0 percent
2. Ohio State Buckeyes: 23.6 percent
3. Indiana Hoosiers: 15.5 percent
4. USC Trojans: 12.5 percent
5. Michigan Wolverines: 11.9 percent
6. Penn State Nittany Lions: 8.0 percent
7. Washington Huskies: 1.3 percent

USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley, left, and Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning talk before a game at Autzen Stadium.
Nov 11, 2023; Eugene, Oregon, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley, left, and Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning talk before a game at Autzen Stadium. | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Betting odds on DraftKings Sportsbook tell a different story, however. According to oddsmakers at DraftKings, USC has the sixth-best odds (+1400) of winning the Big Ten Championship in 2025. Here are the five teams above USC:

1. Ohio State Buckeyes: +200
2. Oregon Ducks: +260
3. Penn State Nittany Lions: +280
4. Michigan Wolverines: +1100
5. Indiana Hoosiers: +1200

This early in the season, ESPN's FPI could be favoring different teams based on their upcoming schedules. For example, Penn State has to play Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana in the regular season while Michigan's toughest remaining opponents are expected to be USC and Ohio State.

MORE: USC Trojans Star Quarterback Quietly Climbing Up NFL Draft Boards

MORE: Why Makai Lemon Deserves MVP in USC's Win Over Michigan State

MORE: USC Trojans' Jayden Maiava Continues This Key Streak In Win Over Michigan State

MORE: Biggest Winners, Losers In USC Trojans Win Over Michigan State Spartans 

As for the Trojans, Riley and company will have multiple of opportunities to prove themselves as Big Ten contenders in games against Michigan and Oregon. On Saturday, Sept. 27, USC will take on No. 23 Illinois.

The Fighting Illini were dismantled by No. 11 Indiana in week 4, and the Hoosiers skyrocketed up Big Ten projections as a result. Will the Trojans have similar success against Illinois?

Biggest Questions for USC

As a team, Trojans are averaging eight penalties per game, and the top teams in the conference will more than likely capitalize on any mistake made by USC.

Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws against the Michigan State Spartans during the first half
Sep 20, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws against the Michigan State Spartans during the first half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

USC's offense has proven itself to be one of the more elite units in the country with Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava impressing with his efficiency. Will the scoring continue as Maiava and USC's offense face some of the better defenses in the Big Ten?

Wide receiver Ja'Kobi Lane missed USC's matchup with Michigan State, and his return to the offense will be crucial to the Trojans' Big Ten title hopes.

"Still inconclusive right now. It was a little bit unexpected. I don't think it'll be super long, but at the same time, I can't sit here today and say for sure he's going to play next week or in the coming weeks," Riley said when talking about Lane's injury status.

Southern California Trojans wide receiver Ja'Kobi Lane (8) warms up on the field before the game against Purdu
Sep 13, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans wide receiver Ja'Kobi Lane (8) warms up on the field before the game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

On the other side of the ball, USC's defense has had trouble stopping opposing offenses at times. The Trojans held Michigan State to 5/11 on third-down conversions, but the Spartans were still able to move the ball and score 31 in the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.

Facing a veteran signal-caller in Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer, will the Trojans be able to slow down the Fighting Illini?

  • Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
  • If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Published | Modified
Charlie Viehl
CHARLIE VIEHL

Charlie Viehl is the deputy editor for the Oregon Ducks, Colorado Buffaloes, and USC Trojans on SI. He has written hundreds of articles for SI and has covered events like the Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff Quarterfinals at the Rose Bowl. While pursuing a career in sports journalism, he is also a lifelong musician, holding a degree in Music and Philosophy from Boston College. A native of Pasadena, California, he covered sports across Los Angeles while at Loyola High School and edited the Gabelli Presidential Scholars Program’s magazine at BC. He is excited to bring his passion for storytelling and sports to fans of college athletics.

Home/Football