Lincoln Riley's Pressure to Win Lands USC Coach in Unique Rankings

With the pressure ramping up heading into the 2026 season, USC Trojans coach Lincoln Riley may have the most to lose if USC does not take a significant step forward.

Sep 20, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Michigan State Spartans during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

As USC Trojans coach Lincoln Riley prepares for the 2026 season, the pressure seems to be as high as it has ever been. For Riley to alleviate the pressure, he must lead USC to a successful season, and at worst, he probably needs to get the Trojans to the College Football Playoff, which likely means reaching the 10-win mark.

Based on the pressure that Riley is under, he may have the most to lose in 2026, according to CBS Sports writer Brad Crawford, and if USC has another season where they are unable to make the College Football Playoff, next offseason could carry some brutal conversations.

Dec 30, 2025; San Antonio, TX, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches from the sidelines against the TCU Horned Frogs in the first half during the Alamo Bowl at Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Circumstances Surrounding Lincoln Riley

Heading into next season, Riley must find a way to give USC an opportunity to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff.

One of the biggest reasons USC could succeed next season is the fact that quarterback Jayden Maiava is returning and is looking to build on a strong 2025 campaign. In Maiava’s 2025 season, he recorded 3,711 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, completed 65.8 percent of his passes, and finished with a 91.2 QBR. 

Overall, Maiava showed that he can lead USC to great success on offense, and with another successful offseason, he may be able to help the Trojans take the next step forward and compete with the top teams in the Big Ten.

In addition to Maiava, Riley also has the benefit of returning the entire starting offensive line, the running back pair of Waymond Jordan and King Miller, and a pair of solid receivers in Tanook Hines and Zacharyus Williams. This continuity that USC has on the offensive side of the ball could be crucial to helping the Trojans become one of the most predictive and explosive offenses in the Big Ten.

Oct 2, 2021; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs head coach Gary Patterson reacts during the first half against the Texas Longhorns at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

USC also has a great opportunity to succeed on defense with the hire of defensive guru Gary Patterson as the new defensive coordinator. The Trojans are also returning key players on defense, which includes defensive tackle Jahkeem Stewart, defensive ends Brylan Shelby and Kameryn Crawford, linebacker Desman Stephens II, cornerback Marcelles Williams, and safeties Christian Pierce and Kennedy Urlacher.

With the players USC has coming back in addition to the hire of Patterson as the defensive coordinator, it does appear that the Trojans are in a prime position to build off what they did in 2025 and could have their best season since Riley took over.

However, USC does have a tough schedule, which could prove problematic for Riley and the Trojans if they are unable to defeat the top-notch opponents they have on the schedule. 

Southern California coach Lincoln Riley looks for answers against Oregon during the second half touchdown Nov. 22, 2025. | Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Downside Of USC’s Tough Schedule

While having a tough schedule could be a great opportunity for Riley and USC to prove they belong in the Big Ten, this is also a schedule that has the potential to completely derail the Trojans' season and shut down any hopes of making the CFP.

In 2026, USC will have to face Oregon, Washington, and Ohio State at home while traveling to play Penn State, Wisconsin, and Indiana in tough road environments. There is no doubt that these six games will go a long way in determining how the Trojans’ season turns out, but also if Riley will feel comfortable or nervous heading into 2027.

Oct 18, 2025; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley talks to an official during the first half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Caterina-Imagn Images | Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

If USC even goes just 3-3 in these games, it is quite likely that the Trojans will once again fail to make the College Football Playoff and put a ton of pressure on the 2027 season. The tough part about USC’s schedule is also the fact that the Trojans play all of these tough opponents in six consecutive games, with two byes throughout the tough stretch.

All that to say, Riley must figure out how to maximize his players, but especially his offense, because if he is unable to, the 2026 season could be looked at as a missed opportunity with Maiava and many other players expected to declare for the 2027 NFL Draft. 

Heading into 2026, Riley’s ability to put USC in positions to win the tough games could be one of the key factors that determine if the Trojans can make the College Football Playoff, or if Riley has to answer some very tough questions next offseason that could result in major changes for USC. 

Sign up to our free newsletter and follow us on Facebook, and X for the latest news.