Three Reasons Lincoln Riley Has Hottest Seat in College Football

How hot is the seat of USC Trojans coach Lincoln Riley? After a disappointing 2024 season, expectations are for USC and Riley to rebound with Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava leading the offense.

Nov 30, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the second half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Three years ago, USC believed it had hired a savior. Former Oklahoma Sooners coach Lincoln Riley was supposed to turn the Trojans into a College Football Playoff power overnight, bringing his Oklahoma pedigree, transfer portal magic, and Heisman Trophy quarterbacks with him.

Instead, USC enters the 2025 season unranked, projected for 7–8 wins, and with its head coach’s name appearing on hot seat lists. That placement underscores what many already know: the patience in Los Angeles is running thin.

Here are three reasons why Riley’s seat is as hot as any in college football heading into the fall.

1. Failure to Meet Expectations

Nov 16, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

When Riley arrived in 2022, USC surged to an 11–3 record and a Cotton Bowl berth. The arrow was pointing straight up. Since then? A pedestrian 15–15 record over two years.

Oddsmakers agree: FanDuel set the Trojans’ win total at 7.5, while multiple outlets project between seven and eight wins.

USC hasn’t been left out of the preseason AP Top 25 Poll since 2019, yet this year, the Trojans are on the outside looking in.

Joel Klatt, speaking on The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast, didn’t mince words: “He’s going to have to win this year… You can’t go 7–5 again. It just isn’t acceptable.”

That statement reflects what many in L.A. are feeling—Riley’s honeymoon ended a long time ago.

2. Defensive Woes and Late-Game Collapses

Nov 30, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard (13) runs the ball against Southern California Trojans defensive end Jamil Muhammad (10) during the first half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

USC's defense took a step forward in 2024, trimming its scoring average from 34.4 points allowed in 2023 to just 24.1 last fall. That’s a 10-point swing and a big reason the Trojans managed to stay competitive in more games.

But improvement doesn’t equal excellence. USC still ranked near the bottom nationally in sacks per game, gave up a 68 percent completion rate for opposing quarterbacks, and surrendered leads late in multiple contests.

College football analyst Josh Pate zeroed in on USC’s inability to finish: “What if it’s just a bunch of one-possession games again? Their record in one-possession games isn’t random… USC couldn’t close out games last year. Has something changed?”

That inability to execute late was the story of 2024. Multiple games slipped away in the fourth quarter, raising questions about conditioning, culture, and game management.

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3. Pressure from the Media, Fanbase, and Buyout Realities

Nov 30, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the second half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Make no mistake: Riley’s reported buyout of $80 million is the only thing insulating him from a swift dismissal. But money won’t silence boosters, national pundits, or a restless fanbase.

On The Josh Pate College Football Show, Pate called USC’s Week 5 trip to Illinois a “hinge game” for the season: “If USC wins, you’re talking about a 5–0 team getting ready for Michigan. If they lose, things could spiral.”

If Riley posts another middle-of-the-pack year, no buyout number will stop the temperature from boiling over.

The Bottom Line

Dec 27, 2024; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts after the game against the Texas A&M Aggies at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Lincoln Riley’s seat isn’t just warm—it’s scorching. He has the résumé, the salary, and the recruiting chops of a championship coach, but the results haven’t matched.

Unless USC drastically outperforms its modest win projections, solves its late-game issues, and proves itself ready for the Big Ten gauntlet, Riley could soon become the latest example that even superstar hires can flame out in L.A.

This season is make-or-break. Anything less than a statement year, and the “hot seat” label will no longer be speculative—it’ll be reality.

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