How USC's College Football Playoff Chances Changed After Notre Dame Loss

The USC Trojans enter their second bye week of the season with a 5-2 record following a 34-24 loss to the No. 12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish. What are USC's current chances of making the College Football Playoff?

Oct 14, 2023; South Bend, Indiana, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley and Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman chat before the game at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-Imagn Images | Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

The USC Trojans, despite their recent 34-24 loss to the No. 12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish on the road in South Bend, are still alive for the College Football Playoff. USC enters its second bye week of the season with a 5-2 record, and according to ESPN's CFP predictor, the Trojans have a 15 percent chance of making the playoff.

Two other Big Ten teams, in addition to USC, have a 5-2 record and a 15 percent chance of making the playoff, including No. 25 Michigan and No. 23 Illinois. USC has played both teams, beating the Wolverines 31-13 at home in week 7 and losing 34-32 to the Fighting Illini on Sept. 27.

LSU also has a 15 percent chance of making the playoff after suffering a 31-24 loss to the Vanderbilt Commodores on Saturday. LSU aims to keep its slim playoff dreams alive and earn an upset win at home on Saturday against the No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies.

Top 24 teams with the highest chance to make the College Football Playoff after Week 8🏆

(via @ESPN) https://t.co/x4XzYcrng4 pic.twitter.com/Pfl1xT8mqw

— On3 (@On3sports) October 22, 2025

What Does USC Need To Do To Earn A Playoff Spot?

Oct 18, 2025; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans wide receiver Ja'Kobi Lane (8) celebrates after scoring against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish with wide receiver Makai Lemon (6) during the second half at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Caterina-Imagn Images | Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

While the loss to Notre Dame on Saturday didn't crush USC's dreams of making it to the playoff, it made their path much more difficult. With the Trojans now standing at 5-2, the only likely way they can make it to the playoffs is by winning out against a difficult schedule.

After the bye week, USC will play the Nebraska Cornhuskers on the road in a "Blackout" night game in Lincoln. The Trojans also have a road test in Eugene on Nov. 22 against the No. 6 Oregon Ducks. USC will have to accomplish what they've struggled to do, which is beat what could be two ranked opponents on the road.

MORE: Three Reasons Why USC Trojans' Playoff Hopes are Still Alive

MORE: USC Trojans, Texas Longhorns' Rankings Spark AP Top 25 Poll Questions

MORE: Recruiting Buzz for Five-Star Tyran Stokes Isn't Great For USC 

MORE: USC Trojans Get Prime Time Kickoff Time Vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers

USC's losses to Notre Dame and Illinois are just the latest struggles this season of the Trojans failing to win against ranked opponents on the road.

Oct 18, 2025; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) fumbles the ball while Notre Dame Fighting Irish defensive lineman Jared Dawson (93)defends in the first half at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

USC also has home games remaining against Northwestern (Nov. 7), Iowa (Nov. 15), and UCLA (Nov. 22). While being at home for those three games will make USC a favorite, Northwestern and Iowa are two underrated Big Ten teams. UCLA is on a three-game winning streak and is playing impressive football under interim coach Tim Skipper after an 0-4 start.

Why Making The Playoff Would Be Considered a Successful Season

Oct 11, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley (wearing white visor) celebrates along with defensive end coach Shaun Nua after kicker Ryon Sayeri (48) hit a 54-yard field goal in the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Considering the way the last two seasons have gone, the way many USC fans hoped under coach Lincoln Riley, making the playoff would be a massive success for the season. The goal and expectation at USC is to compete for championships, and recently, the Trojans haven't been able to do that.

While missing out on the playoff at a 9-3 record would be a disappointment for USC fans, given the way they've lost their two games this season, it is a step in the right direction. Missing the playoff, however, puts extreme pressure on Riley heading into the 2026 season to reach that goal, especially when the Trojans have the No. 1 recruiting class in the nation coming in.