What USC Trojans' Latest Bowl Projection Could Mean For Program's Trajectory, Perception

The USC Trojans have a 4-1 record and are looking to rebound against the No. 15 Michigan Wolverines on Saturday. Where are the Trojans projected to play in the latest bowl projections, and would it satisfy USC fans and recruits?

Sep 13, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) warms up on the sidelines during the first quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

The USC Trojans, fresh out of their bye week and heading into their ranked matchup against the No. 15 Michigan Wolverines, are once again projected to play in the Valero Alamo Bowl in the latest bowl projections from On3's Brett McMurphy.

USC has been projected to play in the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio against the No. 22 Iowa State Cyclones several times in recent weeks. After Cincinnati's 38-30 upset win over Iowa State, the Bearcats took over the Cyclones' place in the latest projections. If this were to hold, it would be the first-ever meeting between USC and Cincinnati.

Cincinnati Bearcats cornerback Ormanie Arnold (8) reacts after a defensive stop in the fourth quarter of the NCAA football game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and Iowa State Cyclones at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati on Oct. 4, 2025. | Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The matchup would also be an exciting offensive game for fans, as two of the nation's top quarterback-wide receiver duos, including USC's Jayden Maiava and Makai Lemon, as well as Cincinnati's Brendan Sorsby and Caleb Goodie, face off.

Would USC Fans Be Satisfied With Alamo Bowl Appearance?

Sep 27, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; during the second half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

An appearance in the Alamo Bowl likely means that USC loses two or three more games on its schedule, putting its record at 9-3 or 8-4. A majority of USC fans wouldn't be satisfied with this record, given the Trojans' proud history of success and winning championships.

USC fans would like to see coach Lincoln Riley lead the Trojans to a spot in the College Football Playoff this season. USC's latest loss to the No. 17 Illinois Fighting Illini hurt the Trojans' chances of reaching that goal, as the next three games against No. 15 Michigan (Oct. 11), No. 16 Notre Dame (Oct. 18), and Nebraska (Nov. 1) are now crucial to win.

MORE: Reinforcements Arriving Soon for USC Trojans Defense, Secondary

MORE: What Michigan's Performance Against Wisconsin Means For USC Trojans Showdown

MORE: USC Trojans Incoming Quarterback Recruit Sets Impressive Record

USC will need to go a minimum of 2-1 during that three-game stretch to still have a shot at a spot in the playoff before playing the No. 3 Oregon Ducks on Nov. 22.

A 9-3 record while being competitive in their two losses should satisfy some USC fans about playing in the Alamo Bowl. The fanbase, especially alumni and donors, would prefer the Trojans to reach higher.

How Would Recruits React to a USC Alamo Bowl Appearance?

Sep 27, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley talks with players during the first half against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Similar to the USC fanbase, playing in the playoff rather than the Alamo Bowl would attract recruits who are considering committing to play for the Trojans. Riley and USC have seen success in recruiting as the Trojans have the No. 1 2026 class.

Riley aims to have another top recruiting class for 2027, and the best way to attract those top recruits is by playing in the 12-team playoff. While the struggles of the last few seasons under Riley still brought the top 2026 recruiting class, an appearance in the playoffs, compared to playing in the Alamo Bowl, elevates USC's recruiting.

Riley has proven to be a great developer of NFL players during his time at Oklahoma and USC, especially at the quarterback position with Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Caleb Williams. His ability alone is one of the contributions to USC's recent top recruiting classes, even though it hasn't resulted in success on the field.