USC Trojans College Football Playoff Path Hinges on This Key Thing

A top college football analyst is high on the USC Trojans chances of making the playoff in coach Lincoln Riley's fifth season.

Nov 7, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

When Lincoln Riley took over as the USC Trojans' football coach in 2021, the expectation was to bring the Trojans back to competing for championships. Fast forward almost five years, and the Trojans have yet to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff, even with the field expanding to 12 teams during that time period. 

While the Trojans have come on the brink of reaching the CFP on two separate occasions, some of the pundits see the 2026 season as a make-or-break year that features Riley finally leading USC to their championship goals.

Sep 20, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Michigan State Spartans during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

One of those pundits is Josh Pate, who mentioned in his Big Ten conference chaos scenario on "Josh Pate’s College Football Show” that USC could find itself in the playoff. The teams from the Big Ten that are considered the favorites to reach the CFP next season include the Ohio State Buckeyes, Indiana Hoosiers, and Oregon Ducks. 

Why USC Could Reach College Football Playoff In 2026

Dec 30, 2025; San Antonio, TX, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) carries the ball against the TCU Horned Frogs in the second half during the Alamo Bowl at Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Trojans are considered the fourth team from the Big Ten that could find themselves in the playoff if they take that next step during the 2026 season. The Michigan Wolverines and Penn State Nittany Lions are also considered underrated teams to make a playoff appearance out of the Big Ten.

“If Ohio State and Oregon and Indiana are down a little bit, and that coincides with USC peaking at the right time, maybe, just maybe, we’re hearing a different kind of fight song in Indianapolis in early December,” said Pate. 

The opportunity of hearing their iconic fight song, “Fight On,” at the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis, or eventually in the College Football Playoff, will be music to Trojan fans' ears, especially given that it’s been so long since they’ve won on the championship stage. 

Oct 16, 2021; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; TCU Horned Frogs head coach Gary Patterson during the game against the Oklahoma Sooners at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

With what USC has returning for Riley’s fifth season, there are many reasons for Trojan fans to believe that they can reach their championship aspirations in 2026. USC is set to return several top players for next season, including star quarterback Jayden Maiava.

In his first season with the Trojans, Maiava threw for 3,711 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, which was the most in the Big Ten conference. Maiava is looking to build off that performance from last season, and how he performs in several of the Trojans top matchups next season could be the difference maker for USC earning a spot in the CFP.

Throughout their four seasons under Riley, USC’s defense has held them back from winning several high-stakes matchups, especially on the road. To help solve those issues, the Trojans brought in former TCU coach Gary Patterson as the team’s new defensive coordinator. Patterson aims to bring a new identity and toughness to USC’s defense, as how they perform during the 2026 season will play a major role in whether they reach the CFP.  

USC's Difficult 2026 Schedule

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning, right, and USC head coach Lincoln Riley shake hands postgame as the Oregon Ducks host the USC Trojans on Nov. 22, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Games against Big Ten opponents that will shape USC’s hopes at both a conference title and reaching the CFP include key road contests with the Penn State Nittany Lions, Indiana Hoosiers, and the UCLA Bruins. 

After posting an undefeated record at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum last season, the USC Trojans will host the Oregon Ducks and Ohio State Buckeyes this upcoming season. These two matchups could define which Big Ten teams emerge as the favorites to win the conference title and earn a top seed in the CFP next season.  

USC has the talent to upset both Oregon and Ohio State at home at the Coliseum next season, which not only would be two signature wins, but barring disaster in their other games, the Trojans will be in the CFP.

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