USC Trojans' Lincoln Riley Buying Time With NIL?

USC Trojans coach Lincoln Riley has not lived up to the expectations since joining the program ahead of the 2022 season. After falling to a 7-6 record in 2025, there is a belief that Riley is on the hot seat this season, but how could Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) affect that decision?

Nov 18, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley during the first quarter at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jason Parkhurst-Imagn Images | Jason Parkhurst-Imagn Images

USC Trojans coach Lincoln Riley joined the program ahead of the 2022 college football season with high expectations. The program has yet to make the College Football Playoff under Riley, and are coming off a disappointing season.

In 2024, the Trojans finished with a 7-6 record, going 4-5 in Big Ten conference play. Though the team did earn and win a bowl game, it was Riley’s worst season with USC. Only winning four conference matchups and going on a three-game losing streak was not a good look for Riley, leading to the belief that he is on the hot seat.

Nov 18, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley during the first quarter at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jason Parkhurst-Imagn Images | Jason Parkhurst-Imagn Images

Lincoln Riley Hot Seat This Season?

There is a growing belief that if the Trojans do not turn things around in 2025, this could be it for Riley. The Herd host Colin Cowherd spoke to Fox Sports analyst and former Ohio State coach Urban Meyer about how Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) is affecting college football. During the discussion, Cowherd explained how NIL will protect Riley’s job for a little while longer.

“You spend so much time raising the money to pay the players, you can’t buy out the coaches anymore,” Cowherd said. “Lincoln Riley, I know the number; he’s not going anywhere. There’s no way. They just spent  $300 million on facilities. $18 million on NIL. He’s got an $80 million buyout. So I think NIL protects the staff. You probably get a year or two more than you used to.”

Nov 16, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley greets quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) after scoring a touchdown against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Riley’s buyout with USC was already a concern, but to add how much the school is spending on NIL, it makes it harder for the program to justify letting go of their current coach. Firing Riley could hurt the school financially more than it could help the program.

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The USC Trojans football program will have a new facility set to open in 2026. This is a major investment being made in the team, and one of the reasons Riley took the USC job. With the money going into the new facilities, it is hard to imagine the program also would spend the money to let go of Riley.

Oct 28, 2023; Berkeley, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley before the game against the California Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

USC's 2026 Recruiting Class

Riley and the Trojans have become one of the most successful programs to utilize NIL with recruiting. USC’s class of 2026 is ranked No. 1 in the nation and features 31 commits. 55 percent are in-state recruits, showing the Trojans' much-needed emphasis on recruiting. The recruitment has provided hope for the future of the program, and in part is due to NIL deals.

One of the reasons USC can bring in such a talented class is through NIL deals. Four-star edge Luke Wafle committed to the Trojans over the Ohio State Buckeyes through a reported bidding war. Ohio State made a late push by boosting their offer to Wafle, but the four-star recruit ended up choosing USC.

The Trojans are building an elite team and investing in them, which lessens the chances of the program letting go of Riley before the class joins the team. The incoming recruits are excited about what Riley and the team are building, and avoiding potential flips before the players sign will be crucial.

Sep 28, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts after a game against the Wisconsin Badgers at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

While the program may not want to spend the money on Riley’s buyout, that does not mean the coach is under any less pressure. While Riley’s job may be safe for the next year or two, USC must start turning things around, winning more in-conference games, and making a college football playoff push.

The USC Trojans will kick off the 2025 college football season on Aug. 29 against the Missouri State Bears.