What USC vs. Notre Dame Means For College Football Playoff Chances

The No. 20 USC Trojans and No. 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish will face off in a high-stakes showdown on Saturday night in South Bend. What does a win or loss on Saturday night mean for USC's and Notre Dame's College Football Playoff chances?

Nov 30, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley and Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman shake hands after the game at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

With College Football Playoff hopes on the line, the No. 20 USC Trojans will face off against one of their fiercest rivals, the No. 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, on Saturday night in South Bend.

The result of Saturday night's matchup will define both teams' seasons as the winner of the game will improve their chances of earning a spot in the College Football playoff, while the loser will likely be out of consideration.

USC's Chances At The Playoff On The Line Against Notre Dame and Beyond

Oct 11, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans offensive lineman Micah Banuelos (59), quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) and USC Trojans defensive end Jadyn Ramos (95) celebrate after defeating the Michigan Wolverines at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

USC's road to the playoff is more difficult compared to Notre Dame's. Entering Saturday night's matchup against Notre Dame, USC has a 30 percent chance of making it to the playoff according to ESPN. A win over the Fighting Irish would increase the Trojans' chances of winning the playoff to 58 percent.

Notre Dame has a 48% chance of winning its remaining games, the highest in FBS, but the Irish need to get through USC first.

The Allstate Playoff Predictor has USC with the biggest potential swing in playoff chances this week, while Notre Dame is looking to avoid its third loss. pic.twitter.com/PU0ZwiMQSk

— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) October 16, 2025

Regardless of the result on Saturday night, USC will still be alive for a spot in the playoff. A loss, however, would make their path more difficult, as their playoff chances would drop to 17 percent. After playing Notre Dame, the Trojans will face two other ranked teams on the road, including No. 25 Nebraska (Nov. 1) and No. 8 Oregon (Nov. 22).

USC will also need to not slip up in their three remaining home games against Northwestern (Nov. 7), Iowa (Nov. 15), and UCLA (Nov. 29). A win against Notre Dame and Oregon will just about guarantee a spot in the playoff for the Trojans.

A loss to Notre Dame on Saturday night means that USC needs to run the table the rest of the regular season to make an argument to be in the playoff.

MORE: What Advanced Analytics Say About USC vs. Notre Dame Matchup

MORE: USC's Lincoln Riley Reveals Opinion on Future Rivalry Games vs. Notre Dame

MORE: Three Keys for USC Trojans to Keep Playoff Hopes Alive Against Notre Dame

Notre Dame In a Must Win Situation For the College Football Playoff Against USC

Notre Dame linebacker Drayk Bowen (34) celebrates after getting a stop in the second half of a NCAA football game against NC State at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 11, 2025, in South Bend. | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The pressure, for the most part, in terms of playoff chances, is on Notre Dame, as they have already lost two games this season. Notre Dame opened the season with a 0-2 record, which featured down-to-the-wire losses to No. 2 Miami and No. 4 Texas A&M. A loss to USC on Saturday would drop Notre Dame's playoff chances to 0.3 percent, all but eliminating them from contention.

Notre Dame's schedule for the rest of the season is easier than USC's. According to ESPN Insights, Notre Dame has a 48 percent chance of winning its remaining games. After playing USC, the Fighting Irish have games remaining against Boston College, Navy, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Stanford.

These are five games that Notre Dame will be heavily favored in. If they finish the regular season at 10-2, it'll be hard to leave them out of the playoff, given their two quality losses.

What a Win Over Notre Dame Would Mean For USC?

Oct 11, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley (wearing white visor) celebrates along with defensive end coach Shaun Nua after kicker Ryon Sayeri (48) hit a 54-yard field goal in the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Since taking over as coach for USC, Lincoln Riley has a 1-2 record against Notre Dame, with his lone win coming in his first season in 2022. Notre Dame has been dominant over USC the last two seasons, winning both games by double digits.

A win over Notre Dame on Saturday night, in which the Trojans would eliminate the Fighting Irish's playoff contention, would be huge for Riley and USC. Riley earned a signature win in week 7 against the Michigan Wolverines, but earning a second straight victory over a ranked opponent would be a huge confidence boost for USC the rest of the season.