Why USC Trojans Should Stay Patient And Not Fire Lincoln Riley

USC Trojans coach Lincoln Riley has been under fire for most of his time in Los Angeles. The Trojans have not reached the level of success they envisioned when hiring Riley four years ago, but they should remain patient with their current coach.

Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches from the sidelines against the Missouri State Bears in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Patience is never something any fan base wants to hear, let alone one of a major Division 1 football program. 

Until USC Trojans coach Lincoln Riley reaches the College Football Playoff, his name will constantly be mentioned by national pundits and every major media outlet as someone that is on the “hot seat.”

Firing a coach is the popular choice when the process is taking time, but it isn’t always the answer, especially for USC with Riley. 

Patience in Los Angeles 

Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches from the sidelines against the Missouri State Bears in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Expectations were high when the Trojans lured Riley away from Oklahoma in November 2021 with a lucrative 10-year contract. 

Riley was expected to bring USC football back to national prominence and so far, outside of reaching the Pac-12 Championship Game and an 11-win season in year one, they have fell way short of those expectations. 

USC currently sits with a 5-2 record, with losses to Illinois and Notre Dame on the road. And with a tough schedule ahead in November, the chances of making the playoffs are a long shot at best in Riley’s fourth season. 

But the Trojans should be patient with Riley, regardless of how the rest of the season turns out. 

Riley inherited a mess from the previous regime but has also owned the mistakes he made early in his tenure, most notably hiring and retaining defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, which meant restarting from the ground up in 2024.

The truth is the culture has changed at USC, and it's felt inside the program and reflects in their current recruiting class. They have the correct assistants in place for recruiting and player development. The guys on the roster hold themselves to a high standard, consistently holding each other accountable.

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There are plenty of areas USC needs to be a lot better under Riley, such as playing on the road and consistent play in the trenches, but it is a program that is on an upwards trajectory and having patience with elite coaches in similar positions as Riley has paid off for other top programs in recent memory. 

Jim Harbaugh’s tenure at Michigan ended with him hoisting a national championship trophy. However, the process was a long and bumpy one, which included a restructured contract in the winter of 2021 that lowered Harbaugh’s base salary and became heavily incentive based. 

It took Harbaugh seven years before he was able to defeat rival Ohio State, win the Big Ten and reach the College Football Playoff. And nine years before he led Michigan to college football’s mountain top. 

Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Michigan Wolverines wide receiver Cornelius Johnson (6) and head coach Jim Harbaugh celebrate after beating the Washington Huskies in the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Dabo Swinney was also in year seven when he got Clemson to a national championship, before winning it the following season and then delivering a second championship just two years later. 

The two coaches had rosters that believed in them and the support of the administration, even when they were on the hot seat at some point early in their tenure, something Riley has both of at USC. 

Moving on from Riley would mean a complete reset, something that would bring USC much further away from their goals than they are at this moment right now. 

Recruiting and Roster Retention

Oct 11, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley, center, runs on to the field for the game against the Michigan Wolverines at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

USC currently holds the No. 1 ranked class in the 2026 recruiting cycle. The Trojans have done a phenomenal job of landing elite in-state talent such as Mater Dei (Calif.) five-star tight end Mark Bowman, Santa Margarita (Calif.) four-star edge Simote Katoanga and Oaks Christian (Calif.) four-star running back Deshonne Redeaux, just to make a few. 

They have made waves outside of the state with Archbishop Hoban (Ohio) five-star cornerback Elbert Hill, IMG Academy (Fla.) five-star offensive tackle Keenyi Pepe, Hun School (N.J.) five-star EDGE Luke Wafle and Richardson (Texas) four-star defensive lineman Jaimeon Winfield. 

It’s an impressive class with a total of 34 commitments. All of that would disappear if the Trojans decided to move on from Riley after this season. Not only does USC have a recruiting class that is setting themselves up for the future, but they also have a high number of recruits that can make an immediately impact in 2026. 

In the transfer portal era, the best way to build a roster is still through high school recruiting and nobody has done at a higher level than USC in this current cycle. 

Archbishop Hoban's Elbert 'Roc' Hill IV runs with the ball in the first half of a football game against Central York at Panthers Stadium on Oct. 18, 2024, in Springettsbury Township. | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Trojans do not have a commit in the 2027 class, but have been building momentum with several blue-chip prospects, particularly in Southern California. Restarting with a new staff could severely hurt the school's chances with

USC hired a brand-new recruiting and personnel staff in the offseason that models an NFL front office, with general manager Chad Bowden at the head of the table. Bowden has put a priority on landing Southern California prospects and building relationships with donors to offer more competitive NIL offers with recruits.  

The Trojans brought in Dre Brown from Illinois as the assistant general manager, Max Stienecker from Wisconsin as the executive director of player personnel and Zaire Turner came with Bowden from Notre Dame to be the assistant athletic director for recruiting operations. 

Riley, Bowden and athletic director Jen Cohen have been working in unison. The Trojans have never been in a better position to acquire talent, whether it is high school players or elite transfer portal talent. And for the first time in a while, there’s a real plan in place. But it’s not just the money that has recruits excited about playing at USC. It's the history and tradition behind the program and their belief in the vision under Riley.

And speaking of the transfer portal, the amount of talent Southern Cal would lose on its roster in the hours and days if they moved on from Riley would he substantial and could take years to rebuild. 

Financial Implications 

Sep 13, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley stands on the sidelines during the first quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

With the financial NIL and revenue-sharing, firing a coach has much more ramifications than it did in the past. 

Riley reportedly has a buyout around $80-$90 million, an astronomical number that the university is almost assuredly unlikely to pay this season or next season when the number slightly goes down. 

Plus, USC has invested in a new $200 million facility, the Bloom Football Performance Center, which is expected to open in the summer of 2026 to go on top of the rest of the program's financial responsibilities. Paying a coach close to nine figures to not coach your program and then giving a lucrative deal to another coach does not make a ton of sense.

We have already seen two high-profile firings during the season. James Franklin’s buyout with Penn State was approximately $49.7 million and Billy Napier’s was $21 million. But Riley is in a much different position than Franklin and Napier. 

Franklin was in year 12 at Penn State. Yes, he guided the Nittany Lions to multiple 11-win seasons but never showed the ability to beat the top programs, particularly in the Big Ten. And after a 4-3 start in 2025, which included back-to-back losses as 20-point favorites, one of those to a winless UCLA team, the administration in Happy Valley felt it was time for a change.

Sep 6, 2025; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin walks on the field prior to the game against the Florida International Panthers at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Napier was hired the same time as Riley and has two losing seasons and never won more than eight games in Gainesville. And this season, Florida struggled to even be around .500 and showed no signs of being able to win big in the SEC at any point in Napier’s tenure. 

Yes, Riley needs to win big, and it needs to happen soon. But the 42-year-old coach remains USC’s best option moving forward.