Win-Loss Prediction Puts USC Right on College Football Playoff Bubble

The USC Trojans are coming off a nine-win season in 2025, which wasn’t enough to make their first College Football Playoff appearance.

How will USC fare in 2026?

USC’s Win-Loss Prediction

usc trojans win loss record prediction big ten conference college football playoff oregon ducks ohio state indiana hoosiers — Dec 27, 2024; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts against the Texas A&M Aggies in the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

CBS Sports revealed their win-loss predictions for every Big Ten team. They have the Trojans finishing the regular season with the same mark they did last year, 9-3.

Here are the wins and losses they project for USC.

Wins

vs. San Jose State
vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
vs. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
vs. Washington Huskies
at Penn State Nittany Lions
at Wisconsin Badgers
vs. Maryland Terrapins
at UCLA Bruins

Losses

vs. Oregon Ducks
vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
at Indiana Hoosiers

This would leave USC with an overall record of 9-3 and a Big Ten conference record of 6-3. That would be on the fringe of making it to the College Football Playoff. The CBS Sports projection has USC making the Las Vegas Bowl.

A Difficult Big Ten Conference Schedule

On paper, USC’s 2026 Big Ten conference schedule is their most difficult yet since joining the league in 2024. This is now year three in the Big Ten for the Trojans. USC struggled mightily in year one, going 6-6 overall in the regular season and 4-5 in Big Ten play.

2025 was a step in the right direction. USC went 9-3 in the regular season and 7-2 in Big Ten play. That brings them to 2026.

USC is slated to play the top three teams in the league from a year ago: Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana.

Oregon has been a thorn in USC’s side since their days as rivals in the Pac-12. The Ducks have beat USC in each of their past four games dating back to 2019. Oregon has made the College Football Playoff the past two seasons and looks to be a threat to make a national title run in 2026.

Ohio State is one of the best college football programs in the country and has been so for quite some time. The Buckeyes won the 2024-25 national title and made it back to the playoff last season.

Indiana was an afterthought in college football just three seasons ago. Since hiring Curt Cignetti as coach prior to the 2024 season, every changed. The Hoosiers made the playoff in 2024-25. After getting eliminated in the first round, many skeptics thought that season was just a flash in the pan. It was anything but.

Indiana went undefeated in 2025, steamrolling their way to a national championship victory. The Trojans will now have to go on the road to face the defending champs.

Outside of these three teams, there are still some opponents that USC cannot afford to take lightly. This includes Penn State.

The Nittany Lions made a massive coaching change and are now led by coach Matt Campbell. Campbell was previously the coach at Iowa State and looks to be the right hire to get Penn State back to the playoff.

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