USC Trojans' Current NCAA Tournament Projection

The USC Trojans currently post a 14-3 record on the season following their 88-71 win over the Maryland Terrapins. How can USC boost its NCAA Tournament resume, and where do they stand in the latest bracketolgy projections?

Jan 13, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Eric Musselman reacts against the Maryland Terrapins in the first half at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

In their first game back in Los Angeles following a difficult three-game Midwest road trip to begin the 2026 calendar year, the USC Trojans defeated the Maryland Terrapins 88-71. USC guard Jordan Marsh led the Trojans in scoring with a season-high 20 points, four rebounds, and four assists on 7-of-14 shooting from the field in the victory.

With the win, the Trojans improve to an impressive mark of 14-3 on the season and post a 3-3 record in Big Ten play. USC’s 14 wins at the midway point of January put the Trojans in great shape to make the NCAA Tournament in their second season under coach Eric Musselman; however, there's still work to do.  

Jan 13, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans guard Jordan Marsh (7) dribbles the ball against the Maryland Terrapins in the second half at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

With March Madness right around the corner, the contenders for the 68-team field are starting to come into form. Where do the Trojans fall in the latest NCAA Tournament bracketology projections?

USC's Current NCAA Tournament Projection

Jan 13, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Eric Musselman reacts against the Maryland Terrapins in the first half at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

According to ESPN Joe Lunardi’s latest ESPN Bracketology, USC is currently projected to be the No. 10 seed in the West Region. The Trojans' projected first-round matchup in the West Region is against the Utah State Aggies in Portland, Oregon. 

The top four seeds projected for the West Region, along with USC, include the No. 1 Arizona Wildcats, No. 9 Gonzaga Bulldogs, No. 13 Illinois Fighting Illini, and No. 19 Florida Gators. 

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If this projection were to hold up, it would be the second consecutive time that the Trojans would be a No. 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The last time the Trojans made the tournament in 2023, they were the No. 10 seed in the East Region, before falling 72-62 in their first-round matchup against the Michigan State Spartans in Columbus, Ohio.

Why USC's Projected Seed Is Lower Than Many Would Expect

Jan 9, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Southern California Trojans forward Chad Baker-Mazara (4) looks on during the second half against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Williams Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images | Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

While many would expect USC’s projected seed to be higher with a 14-3 record, their recent blowout road losses to the No. 4 Michigan Wolverines and No. 12 Michigan State Spartans were a big hit to the Trojans tournament resume. 

The Trojans, despite winning the Maui Invitational for the first time in program history, had a very weak non-conference schedule with only a few quality wins. While not as loaded as past years’ tournaments, USC winning the Maui Invitational provided a major boost in the Trojans confidence. 

USC’s best win of the season came in the Maui Invitational Semifinal against the No. 25 Seton Hall Pirates on Nov. 25, winning an 83-81 thriller. Seton Hall has had a phenomenal season and is considered one of the top teams in the Big East, also with a 14-3 record. The win over Seton Hall could prove to be huge for the Trojans later on in the season when the tournament field is finalized.

Other than losing to USC in the Maui Invitational in November, the Pirates' other losses of the season came against the Villanova Wildcats and the No. 3 UConn Huskies, both of which were decided by single digits.  

Why USC's Upcoming Matchup Against Purdue Could Provide Major Boost

Jan 10, 2026; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Purdue Boilermakers guard Fletcher Loyer (2) celebrates a three point shot during the first half against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

USC’s upcoming matchup against the No. 5 Purdue Boilermakers on Saturday at the Galen Center gives the Trojans a golden opportunity to strengthen their tournament resume with an upset win. The Boilermakers are among the Big Ten's best, posting a 15-1 overall record, with their only loss coming to the No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones.  

The tip-off at the Galen Center between the Trojans and Boilermakers is scheduled for 3 p.m. PT with the game broadcast on Peacock. USC looks to pull off another top-10 upset at home under Musselman. The Trojans upset top-10 Michigan State last February at the Galen Center.