Drake vs. Southern Illinois Prediction, Odds for MVC Tournament 1st Round

The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament gets underway this week, and the Drake Bulldogs are set as sizable underdogs in their first-round matchup with the Southern Illinois Salukis on Thursday afternoon.

Drake struggled in MVC play this season, going just 6-14 while ending the campaign on a nine-game losing streak. The Bulldogs lost one of their meetings with the Salukis during the regular season, suffering a five-point loss at home while winning by three on the road much earlier in conference play.

While Southern Illinois didn’t put together a huge 2025-26 season, it was 10-10 in MVC play, winning four games in a row to close the regular season at 16-15 overall.

The Salukis even won at Belmont (the No. 1 seed in the MVC) earlier this season by one point. So, they could be a dark horse team in this tournament, especially if they get past the Bulldogs on Thursday.

Here’s a look at the betting odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this first-round matchup in the MVC Tournament.

Drake vs. Southern Illinois Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Drake +4.5 (-108)
Southern Illinois -4.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Drake: +170
Southern Illinois: -205

Total

135.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Drake vs. Southern Illinois How to Watch

Date: Thursday, March 5
Time: 4:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Enterprise Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN+
Drake record: 12-19
Southern Illinois record: 16-15

Drake vs. Southern Illinois Key Player to Watch

Damien Mayo Jr., Guard, Southern Illinois

Senior guard Damien Mayor Jr. is the fourth-leading scorer for the Salukis this season, but he has owned the Bulldogs in two matchups.

Mayo is averaging 20.5 points, 4.0 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game against Drake, shooting 57.7 percent from the field and 50.0 percent from 3. In their last meeting (a five-point road win for Southern Illinois, Mayo shot 8-for-10 from the field and finished with 22 points.

So, he’ll be on the top of the list of players to slow down for the Bulldogs, who rank just 264th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric this season. Mayo is averaging career-highs in points (9.2) and assists (2.3) per game in the 2025-26 season.

Drake vs. Southern Illinois Prediction and Pick

These teams are trending in opposite directions heading into this first-round matchup, and that’s good news for Southern Illinois.

The Salukis closed out the regular season strong, winning four in a row, and they’ve shown they can compete with the best teams in the MVC this season. Drake, on the other hand, has dropped nine in a row and is a dreadful 9-20 against the spread in the 2025-26 season.

The Bulldogs rank outside the top 150 in adjusted offensive efficiency and are 263rd in opponent effective field goal percentage. The Bulldogs are going to struggle to score against a Salukis team that is one of the best defensive teams in the country, ranking 30th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric.

Southern Illinois is holding opponents to just 30.4 percent shooting from deep while ranking 64th in the country in opponent effective field goal percentage. The Salukis allowed just 61 points in their win over Drake on Feb. 18, and I’ll trust their defense to help them advance in the MVC Tournament on Thursday.

Pick: Southern Illinois -4.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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