Which Roster Retentions Will Mean More In Next Season's ACC Race: Duke's or Virginia’s?

Virginia and Duke were the top two teams in the ACC this past season and are projected to be right there at the top again in 2026-2027. Both teams have prioritized roster retention this offseason and that is a huge reason why they will enter the year as contenders.

Which retentions will matter more though?

Looking at the rosters

Sam Lewis Virginia Basketbal — Mar 22, 2026; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Virginia Cavaliers guard Sam Lewis (5) shoots the ball against the Tennessee Volunteers in the first half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

The Cavaliers returned the majority of their roster from a season ago, and a lot of key players who were contributors to the team winning 30 games in 2025-2026. Key returners include Thijs De Ridder, Chance Mallory, Johann Grünloh, Sam Lewis, and Eljah Gertrude. De Ridder led the Cavaliers with 15.6 points per game last season. Lewis is the best shooter from the perimeter coming back, shooting 40% from beyond the arc, and Mallory led the team with 1.6 steals per game.

Duke returned Caleb Fooster, Cayden Boozer, Patrick Ngonba II, Dame Sarr, and Sebastian Wilkins. Ngonba II will be a major player for the Blue Devils next year and a much-needed interior presence in the front court. On a talented roster in 2025-2026, Ngonba II was the third-leading scorer, averaging 10.1 points per game. He also averaged 5.8 rebounds and 1.1 blocks on the defensive end. Celeb Foster will be the player with the most experience in the group and will enter his senior season. Foster averaged 8.3 points and 3.5 rebounds a season ago.

Cayden Boozer caught fire towards the end of the season due to injury. Boozer hit double-figures in four of his final six games of the regular season, including a career-high 19 points on the first round of the NCAA tournament against Siena. Boozer should be the starting point guard next season. Sarr averaged 6.4 points and 3.8 assists for the Blue Devils. Wilkins redshirted last season.

The Verdict

I would put more trust in the Cavaliers players coming back because they will play a bigger role and have more chemistry. Virginia's main core players, Mallory, Lewis, De Ridder, and Grünloh, all played a lot of time together. They went through the battles last season and were very durable and didn’t miss a lot of time together. You take that with the improvement to their games, and have a coach Ryan Odom system, and have a dangerous team that plays well together.

Duke players missed a good amount of time in Ngonba II and Foster. Boozer didn’t play more until the end of the season and played a primary reserve role for the Blue Devils. Wilkins didn’t see the court after redshirting. Ngonba II and Foster are probably the best of this group that returns.

You never know how things will look, especially with the influx of talent the Blue Devils have from the portal and its freshman class, which always plays a factor. Virginia has only taken one recruit from the 2026 class so far, in Favour Ibe. You compare that to Duke, which has five commits for the same cycle, with all five of its recruits ranked in the top 125. Every year, Duke has multiple freshmen who find a role and are stars. Next year will be no different.

Virginia retentions will mean much more when you look at the returners, talent brought in, camaraderie, chemistry, and playing together than what Duke is bringing back and its influx of freshman prospects.

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