Staff predictions for Virginia vs Florida State — a high-end rematch on deck

The Cavaliers have a big test in their first ACC road game, but they are favored to win

Sep 26, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) completes a two-point conversion as Florida State Seminoles defensive lineman Mandrell Desir (93) chases during the second overtime period at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

To keep pace and maintain a tie for first place in the ACC, Virginia must conquer Florida State in its first true road game of 2026.

An ACC road game is never easy — but the Cavaliers are actually favored to pick up a win at the feared Doak Campbell Stadium. Here are game predictions from the Virginia On SI staff:

Jackson Caudell: Virginia 31, Florida State 21

I think this is going to be an interesting test for UVA. While FSU and West Virginia are not the same team, they pose similar challenges. The Seminoles are a mess, but they have talented running backs and a quarterback who can stress you with his legs, much like WVU.

Playing away from Charlottesville has not been kind to Virginia so far this year (though a small sample size), and I think they need to be careful here. Most everyone is overlooking Florida State, but they can win this game. However, I have far more trust in Tony Elliott to go on the road and get a win to remain unbeaten in ACC play. 

Xander Tilock: Virginia 38, Florida State 27

At first glance, I was leaning towards picking the Seminoles at home. However, there are two major factors that make it essentially impossible for Florida State to win.

The Seminoles have the ACC's second-worst pass defense through four games — so Virginia should have little trouble scoring 35-plus points. However, the other side of the ball is more important, particularly because Florida State has turned the ball over at an average greater than once per game. The Cavaliers can capitalize on those turnovers by turning them into lengthy touchdown drives.

Florida State is capable of making things interesting — especially at home — but there are a few reasons why Virginia is the favorite in an ACC road game. This should be a Cavaliers win by multiple scores.

Steve DeShazo: Virginia 31, Florida State 27

Saturday brings Virginia's first true road game of 2026.  It comes against a proud and talented team that has not played up to its capabilities and may be competing to save Coach Mike Norvell's job in the same way I believe the Cavaliers did for Elliott last year.

FSU's offensive skill trio of quarterback Ashton Daniels, receiver Ousman Kromah and receiver Duce Robinson will be a handful for the Cavaliers to contain. Beau Pribula could have a field day passing against the Seminoles, and it may be mandatory to keep Virginia close.

The Cavaliers have yet to win a close game or pull out a victory away from home this season. Their only true test came at Charlotte, where the defense struggled and the offensive line showed some vulnerability in a 38-27 loss to West Virginia.