Three Bold Predictions for Virginia Tech vs. Cal

Coming off their first loss, the Hokies make their first trip to Berkeley to face a short-handed Cal team.

Oct 2, 2026; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer (17) throws a pass during the fourth quarter against the Pittsburgh Panthers at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bishop-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Virginia Tech has the most sacks in the ACC and one of the worst turnover margins in the country. Something has to give Saturday at Cal.

The Hokies (4–1, 1–1 ACC) are the better team today than the Golden Bears (2–3, 1–1) in their first game in Berkeley, with a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff on the ACC Network. Here are three bold predictions.

1. Jeffrey Overton Jr. outrushes Cal's entire offense

Nothing about the past month says this is coming. The sophomore has 455 yards and four touchdowns, but he’s been under 50 in three of his four games against FBS teams. Tech ran for 65 against Pitt.

The line got thinner Friday night. Four offensive linemen are out: starting left tackle Justin Terry, Lucas Austin, Roseby Lubintus and Brody Meadows. Sixth-year guard Montavious Cunningham, who didn’t play against Pitt, isn’t on the report.

Cal is the reason to call it anyway. The Bears allow 187.4 rushing yards per game, 121st in the FBS, at 5.2 a carry. UCLA ran for 277 on them and Clemson for 257.

Their own run game is worse, and it’s short-handed too. Cal averages 95.0 rushing yards, 133rd nationally, and hasn’t reached 120 against an FBS team. Adam Mohammed has 336 of the Bears’ 475 rushing yards, and he’s doubtful with a left knee injury. Carter Vargas is out. Without Mohammed at UNLV, Cal ran 24 times for 69 yards, and Ashten Emory had 48 of them. Tech gives up 87.4 on the ground, 14th in the country.

2. Tech sacks Cal's quarterback 5+ times

The Hokies lead the ACC with 18 sacks, and senior end Aycen Stevens (5.5) and sophomore Cortez Harris (five) have more than half of them. The fair knock is that 12 came against VMI and Old Dominion. Tech hasn’t had more than three against a power-conference team.

But Cal’s protection has cracked every time it’s had to chase a game. Nine of the 10 sacks the Bears have allowed came in their three losses. A team that can’t run and converts 34.7% of its third downs is going to live in third-and-long.

That’s true no matter who takes the snap. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is still questionable, and On3 reported Friday night that his status won’t be decided until Saturday. If he can’t go, it’s Colorado State transfer Jackson Brousseau under center.

3. The Hokies finish plus-two in turnovers

This is the one that would change how the season feels. Tech is minus five in turnover margin, tied for 123rd in FBS, with nine giveaways and four takeaways.

So far this season, the ball has hit the ground 18 times in Tech’s five games, eight by the Hokies and 10 by their opponents, and Tech has recovered four. It has lost seven of its own eight. Nobody is that bad at falling on a football. Over a season, loose balls split closer to even, and the Hokies are owed a few.

Cal is a good place to collect. Six of the Bears’ eight giveaways came in their three losses. The danger runs the other way if safety Kingston Lopa plays, because he has five of Cal’s seven interceptions. He’s in the same spot as his quarterback, questionable with a Saturday decision.

Ethan Grunkemeyer threw 136 passes without a pick before Pitt, and he has 11 touchdowns against two interceptions this season. I think the first four games are closer to who he is than last Friday was.