ESPN BPI Forecasts a Strong Big 12 Run for West Virginia After Uneven Start

The computers at ESPN believe in the Mountaineers despite a 9-4 start to the season.

Dec 22, 2025; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers guard Amir Jenkins (2) dribbles the ball during the second half against the Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at Hope Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

We've reached the unofficial midway point of the season as non-conference play is over, and the next game will begin a new chapter with the start of Big 12 play.

Thanks to two double-digit blown leads to Clemson and Ohio State, West Virginia has put itself in a tough position, entering conference play with four losses and zero quality wins. To make the NCAA Tournament, they're going to, in all likelihood, finish with a winning record in the Big 12 and have a couple of signature wins to help bolster the resume.

Following the conclusion of last night's game against Mississippi Valley State, I went through each game on WVU's schedule to see what the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI) expects to happen. Here's the full breakdown.

Game-by-game FPI odds for West Virginia

at Iowa State - 12.4%

vs. Cincinnati - 75.3%

vs. Kansas - 44.2%

at Houston - 11.9%

vs. Colorado - 84%

at Arizona State - 68.2%

at Arizona - 10.5%

vs. Kansas State - 72%

vs. Baylor - 57.7%

at Cincinnati - 51.2%

vs. Texas Tech - 55.8%

at UCF - 47.4%

vs. Utah - 87.4%

at TCU - 52.8%

at Oklahoma State - 59.6%

vs. BYU - 39.1%

at Kansas State - 46.9%

vs. UCF - 72.4%

The breakdown

Overall record: 20-11

Big 12 record: 11-7

Big 12 home record: 7-2

Big 12 road record: 4-5

Why this is going to be way off

The BPI always puts a huge lean into homecourt advantage, and understandably so. I could see a scenario where the Mountaineers win six or seven games at home. That's not the problem. Winning four on the road? Yeah, I don't think so. Even some of West Virginia's best teams struggled to win that many road games, and this group isn't talented enough or deep enough for that to happen. WVU hasn't won 11 conference games since 2020-21, and this bunch doesn't come anywhere close to that team.

I'll release my game-by-game predictions later in the week, but I can tell you right now, they're not reaching 20 wins.

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