Falling to the Frogs? ESPN BPI Predicts West Virginia vs. TCU

Can the Mountaineers prove the computers wrong?

West Virginia Mountaineers center Eduardo Andre (0) dunks in the first half of the NCAA basketball game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the West Virginia Mountaineers at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati on Sunday, Feb. 2, 2025. | Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Wednesday night, the West Virginia Mountaineers have a chance to win their second straight game on the road and push their conference back above .500 when they square off with the TCU Horned Frogs in Fort Worth.

Do the computers believe in WVU getting the job done?

What the BPI says

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI) matchup predictor, West Virginia has a 46% chance of winning their second straight while TCU has a 54% chance to hand the Mountaineers their eighth loss of the season.

This is one of the projections that I'll firmly disagree with. Winning on the road isn't easy, but TCU has had some major issues scoring the ball this season. West Virginia shares those same issues offensively, but they make up for it by being one of the best defensive teams in college basketball.

West Virginia's recent games

West Virginia University forward Amani Hansberry | Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

The Mountaineers nearly mounted a massive come-from-behind win in their mid-week game against No. 6 Houston, but the 20-point deficit was too big of a hill to overcome. With that being their third straight loss, they desperately needed to get back in the win column on Sunday against a struggling Cincinnati team on the road and they were able to do just that, thanks to an uptick in effort on the defensive end. Plus, WVU finally shot the ball well, connecting on 49% of shots from the floor and 50% from three-point land.

TCU's recent games

Jan 22, 2025; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs head coach Jamie Dixon reacts after a play against the Kansas Jayhawks during the first half at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

The Frogs dropped three straight games by double digits to Kansas, UCF, and Texas Tech before finally getting back in the win column and above .500 with a victory over Colorado, who remains winless in Big 12 Conference play. Despite only pulling down 22 rebounds on the night, TCU's defense was able to force the Buffs into some sloppy play, turning it over 18 times. Colorado has thrown the ball away a bunch this season, and the Frogs took full advantage of it, turning those turnovers into 28 points.

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