Dark Times to Continue? West Virginia Given a Whopping 5% Chance to Beat BYU

The Mountaineers could be staring at a third straight loss to open Big 12 Conference play.

West Virginia University receiver Justin Smith-Brown breaks the tackle of Pitt linebacker Kyle Louis | Christopher Hall – West Virginia on SI

It's been a brutal start to league play for the West Virginia Mountaineers, and unfortunately, the schedule doesn't get any easier. Friday night, they'll square off with No. 23 BYU (4-0,1-0) before heading into a much-needed bye week.

What the ESPN FPI says for WVU vs. BYU

Sep 27, 2025; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers head coach Rich Rodriguez reacts on the sidelines during the third quarter against the Utah Utes at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

According to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI), West Virginia has just a 5.1% chance of picking up its first Big 12 win of the year, while BYU has a 94.9% chance to move to 5-0 on the season.

This is a pure indication of how tough a situation the Mountaineers are in. Not only have they been out-scored 89-24 in their first two Big 12 contests, but they could be in line to start redshirt freshman Khalil Wilkins at quarterback, which would make the third starter at the position in six games for the offense. On top of that, WVU is still dealing with a number of injuries, and the short week doesn't help the cause.

Change in analytics since initially released

Sep 27, 2025; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Brigham Young Cougars quarterback Bear Bachmeier (47) warms up before the game against the Colorado Buffaloes at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Before the season began, BYU was already viewed as a heavy favorite for this game at 81.5%, which at the time, I thought was way too high. The Cougars were unsure about the quarterback spot after Jake Retzlaff departed, and I figured that at this point, WVU would know what their identity is and at least have a chance to leave Provo with a win.

Well, it turns out that true freshman Bear Bachmeier is a pretty talented dual-threat option for BYU and may be an upgrade over Retzlaff, believe it or not. Couple that with the Mountaineers still trying to find the right mix up front on the o-line, someone to take hold of the QB job, and an injury-riddled running back room, and it's easy to see why WVU's win probability has tanked for this matchup.

The Mountaineers and Cougars will kick things off at 10:30 p.m. ET on Friday. You'll be able to watch the game live on FOX.

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