Ty Simpson predicted to replace $75 million QB in 2026 NFL draft

The Las Vegas Raiders enter Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season with a 2-8 record, sitting last in the AFC West.

Under new head coach Pete Carroll and GM John Spytek, the team has struggled to generate offense, averaging just 15.5 points per game (30th in the NFL) while allowing 25.3 points per game (24th).

The quarterback position has been a glaring weakness; veteran Geno Smith, acquired from Seattle in March, has thrown for 2,082 yards, 12 touchdowns, and a league-leading 13 interceptions.

Smith signed a two-year, $75 million extension with Las Vegas, keeping him under contract through 2027 with $66.5 million guaranteed, making it financially difficult for the Raiders to move on quickly.

Still, his uneven play has fueled speculation that the team will look for a long-term solution at quarterback.

On Wednesday, ESPN’s Matt Miller delivered his latest 2026 NFL mock draft that projected Alabama’s Ty Simpson to Las Vegas at No. 5 to replace Smith.

"Geno Smith has not worked out in Las Vegas, and a quarterback reboot is coming. Perhaps the Raiders could be a destination for a veteran like Kyler Murray or Mac Jones should either be available, but Las Vegas is also a prime candidate to draft a quarterback should one be on the board,” Miller wrote.

“Simpson has started only 10 games in college, but he's playing with impeccable poise and timing after developing for three seasons. The 6-2 208-pounder has thrown 22 touchdowns to just two picks this season. Simpson's inexperience will need to be vetted by scouts, but his instincts and processing are starter-level."

Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson. — Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson (15) rolls away from pressure by LSU safety Tamarcus Cooley (0) at Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium. | Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images

Simpson has emerged as one of the top prospects in college football.

Standing 6’2” and 208 pounds, the junior Crimson Tide QB has thrown for 2,787 yards, 22 touchdowns, and just two interceptions this season, with a 66.9% completion rate.

His efficient play and Alabama’s No. 10 national ranking have positioned Simpson as a legitimate Heisman contender and projected top-10 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

The Raiders’ quarterback carousel has continued for years, with four different starters in four opening days.

Smith was supposed to stabilize the position, but his turnover issues and declining mobility have left the offense stagnant.

Drafting Simpson would give Las Vegas a young, cost-controlled quarterback to build around, even if Smith remains on the roster in 2026 due to contract guarantees.

Read More at College Football HQ