Predicting every Big Ten football team's first loss in the 2025 season

Winning the last two national championships has the Big Ten riding high as college football's most dominant conference, but could that change in the 2025 season?

Let's take a shot at predicting every Big Ten football team's first loss looking ahead to the 2025 season. / Ron Chenoy | Imagn

Winning the last two national championships has arguably pushed the Big Ten ahead of the SEC as college football’s most dominant conference, but that could change in the 2025 season when looking at each league’s schedule heading into this fall.

Michigan in 2023 and Ohio State in 2024 put the Big Ten back on the map and took the mantle away from the SEC, which dominated the century in national championships.

This season, other contenders like Penn State and Oregon, which played each other for the conference title a year ago, can keep the Big Ten in its newfound position.

Looking forward to the Big Ten football schedule in 2025, when could each of the conference’s member teams lose their first game of the season?

More: ESPN computer predicts Big Ten football order of finish in 2025

UCLA

Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

First loss: vs. Utah, Aug. 30

One game, one loss for the Bruins, who open up at home in the Rose Bowl, but Nico Iamaleava’s debut could be easily spoiled in the face of what should be another well-coordinated Utah defense.

UCLA’s pass defense, ranked 108th nationally last season, will also be tested by a Utes attack that should get a considerable upgrade with the program bringing on a star pairing from New Mexico in quarterback Devon Dampier and coordinator Jason Beck.

--

Purdue

Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images

First loss: vs. USC, Sept. 13

Purdue should be 2-0 heading into its first Big Ten matchup of the year, but the Trojans should have every advantage going into Ross-Ade Stadium, boasting game-changing speed at the skill positions and boasting what should be a better defensive rotation.

Barry Odom, the former UNLV coach who should be able to turn things around at Purdue at some point, has to replace every position on a defense that allowed 40 points per game and an offense that was 130th in FBS in scoring.

--

Northwestern

Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images

First loss: at Tulane, Aug. 30

Northwestern doesn’t get out of August with a win, as it draws one of the best teams from the Group of Six ranks, squaring off against a Tulane squad that scored a huge quarterback transfer when BYU’s Jake Retzlaff landed at the school this offseason.

Retzlaff should easily navigate a Northwestern secondary rotation that finished last season as the 128th ranked pass defense out of 136 teams at the FBS level. This could be a playoff contender at year’s end, and the Wildcats won’t be a credible challenge.

--

Rutgers

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

First loss: vs. Iowa, Sept. 19

Rutgers’ offense should take a step backwards after losing Kyle Monangai in the backfield, but returns its starting quarterback and has some intriguing pieces on defense. That might not be enough against this draw.

--

Minnesota

Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

First loss: at Ohio State, Oct. 4

Minnesota will get off to a nice 4-0 start in our predictions against an easy non-conference slate in the first month of the season, but the Big Ten schedule opens up as hard as it can, with a date against the reigning national champions on the road.

Darius Taylor will be the centerpiece of the Minnesota offense running the ball, and the Gophers have to install new defensive coordinator to take over a unit that was top 10 nationall in scoring last fall.

--

Maryland

Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

First loss: at Wisconsin, Sept. 20

Maryland installs a new quarterback who should make this offense move a little better than it did last season, and this team should get through the likes of Florida Atlantic, Northern Illinois, and Towson with little issue.

But the Big Ten opener finds the Terps on the road at Camp Randall against what should be a marginally-better Badgers squad that will get the better of this secondary.

--

Indiana

Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

First loss: at Iowa, Sept. 27

The first three Big Ten games on the Hoosiers’ schedule could throw a monkey wrench into this team’s season early on, opening up against Illinois before going to the Hawkeyes, and then a statement trip to Oregon to face off against the Ducks.

We’ll give Indiana a 1-0 mark to start in Big Ten play, but have this team dropping those next two, as this offense, under new management with Fernando Mendoza in at quarterback, to face what should be a strong Iowa defense up front.

--

Illinois

Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

First loss: at Indiana, Sept. 20

Illinois could drop a marquee road game against ACC hopeful Duke in the second week of the season, but this is an experienced roster that won 10 games a year ago and should escape Durham with a close victory, and a key boost for the Big Ten’s reputation, too.

But the Illini could walk into an upset on the road against the Hoosiers, who, while they lose some of last year’s playoff roster, retain enough to keep this team in the mix for something good, and should be able to get to the quarterback.

--

Washington

Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

First loss: vs. Ohio State, Sept. 27

Washington will start 3-0 against this schedule, including a win against rival Washington State in the Apple Cup, but it returns home to Husky Stadium with a date against the Buckeyes and their roster of national title-caliber skill weapons.

Jedd Fisch has a reputation himself as an offensive strategist, and he brings forward an intriguing trio of quarterback Demond Williams, wideout Denzel Boston, and running back Jonah Coleman who could bother Ohio State’s defense.

--

Michigan State

Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

First loss: at USC, Sept. 20

Aidan Chiles needs to put the Spartans’ offense on his back, and he’ll have help in the form of some promising wide receiver transfers to build up a unit that barely scratched 20 points per game on average last season.

We’ll give the Spartans a win over Boston College early on, a nice confidence-booster against a Power Four team, but the Big Ten opener at the Coliseum will show that Sparty’s defense still lacks firepower compared to the Trojans’ skill threats.

--

Wisconsin

Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

First loss: at Alabama, Sept. 13

Wisconsin plays college football’s third-toughest schedule based on opponents’ win-loss records from a year ago, not a perfect method, but what we have right now, and it’ll face one of the hardest tests of any team with a date on the road against the Crimson Tide.

Alabama smashed the Badgers at Camp Randall last season, and while Jalen Milroe won’t be there to pilot this offense this time around, the Tide still boasts a ferocious defensive front seven that will stop Luke Fickell’s offense with ease.

--

USC

Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

First loss: at Illinois, Sept. 27

USC just isn’t supposed to lose to Illinois. That’s the mindset in L.A., but these days you can credibly ask whether the Trojans lose games like this after Lincoln Riley’s team lost five games against Big Ten opponents by a single possession.

Illinois returns most of the production that won 10 games a year ago, including some key defensive inputs around the line that could get the better of a USC protection unit that is considered a weakness.

--

Iowa

Joseph Cress/For the Register / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

First loss: at Iowa State, Sept. 6

Iowa State has taken two of the last three in the Cy-Hawk Trophy series, but those matchups were decided by a combined 10 points, and this year’s meeting could prove equally close comparing both of these teams’ position groups.

Iowa should be a little more liberal throwing the ball with Mark Gronowski at quarterback, but pieces of the Hawkeyes’ superb defense are gone, which could prove troublesome against a Cyclones receiving group that helped beat Kansas State in Week 0.

--

Nebraska

Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

First loss: at Minnesota, Oct. 17

The other contender on this list is naturally Michigan, which the Cornhuskers host at Memorial Stadium on Sept. 20, but we like what should be a more aggressive offense with Dylan Raiola at the helm to get the better of a Michigan defense in transition.

If so, that could propel Nebraska to a national ranking, and what would almost certainly be a 6-0 record heading into Minnesota, which could prove something of a trap if the Gophers can maintain their standard on defense.

--

Michigan

Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

First loss: at Oklahoma, Sept. 6

With all the talk of the Big Ten overtaking the SEC, the Sooners will be under pressure to dispel that narrative and hand the Wolverines an early loss.

Oklahoma has home-field advantage, what should be a much-improved defense under Brent Venables’ direction, and a potent offensive combination in quarterback John Mateer and tailback Jaydn Ott to deliver a signature win for the SEC in early September.

--

Oregon

Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

First loss: at Penn State, Sept. 27

Despite some notable turnover on this roster, the Ducks still should have enough firepower to take another stab at the Big Ten title as the reigning conference champion.

The trip to Penn State is the only real concern here, as the Nittany Lions have one of the best home-field edges in the world and serious continuity on the offensive side of the ball, otherwise Oregon could be favored in every other game it plays.

--

Penn State

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

First loss: at Ohio State, Nov. 1

No matter what progress Penn State seems to make under James Franklin, including a deep College Football Playoff run last season, the Ohio State-shaped monkey on its back will not budge. And it’ll take some doing to change that in Columbus this year.

Penn State should be 7-0 going into this game, a better record than we predict the Buckeyes will have at the same time, but until we see otherwise, we’re not confident taking Franklin over Ohio State, which, despite its own roster turnover, is still a national title-caliber roster.

--

Ohio State

Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

First loss: vs. Texas, Aug. 30

Arch Manning may not be the reason Texas upsets Ohio State in the opener, but he’ll probably get the credit, given how obsessed the media is with the quarterback.

He has some quality receivers at his disposal who can credibly test what will be a solid Ohio State pass defense, but the Texas defensive front will do most of the work harassing the Buckeyes’ new-look line and getting at OSU’s new quarterback.

--

Read more from College Football HQ

feed