Tulane vs. North Texas prediction: Who wins the American Championship Game, and why?

More than just the American Conference championship is on the line as Tulane and North Texas face off for the league title. What happens here will shape the College Football Playoff picture, too.

Tulane is currently the highest-ranked Group of Five team in the selection committee rankings and would be the favorite to take at least the No. 12 seed provided it can take out the Mean Green.

And depending on what happens in the ACC Championship Game this weekend, an even better position could be up for grabs, especially if Tulane can pull it out at home.

Tulane vs. North Texas: What to watch

Tulane vs. North Texas football game prediction 2025 — Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

1. Tulane havoc vs. UNT firepower

North Texas comes in with one of the top scoring and total offenses in the country, built on an explosive air attack and balance with an emerging star back in Caleb Hawkins.

Tulane’s path is to create negative plays. Sacks and tackles for loss have been central to its defensive success.

Simply sitting back and trading yards with this attack is where North Texas has buried opponents during its six‑game double‑digit win streak.

2. QB run game and red zone

Tulane’s offense leans heavily on dual‑threat quarterback Jake Retzlaff, who has been a major red‑zone weapon with his legs in addition to a steady passing output.

If Tulane can stay on schedule with QB runs, convert in the red area, and keep the chains moving, it not only shortens the game against North Texas’ more potent offense, but also forces the Mean Green linebackers to play assignment‑sound football instead of pinning their ears back.

3. Turnovers and short fields

Both teams score quickly enough that extra possessions will be magnified, and several recent analyses flag turnovers as the swing variable in an otherwise tight matchup with a spread under a field goal.

North Texas has been better this season in turnover margin and against the spread, but Tulane has generated significant takeaways and has won the last two head‑to‑head meetings, suggesting that whichever side wins the explosives‑plus‑turnovers battle probably survives a high‑scoring game with playoff stakes attached.

Who is favored?

The betting markets expect a shake-up in the playoff race based on how this game could turn out.

North Texas is a 2.5 point favorite against Tulane, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 66.5 points for the matchup and set the moneyline odds for North Texas at -132 and for Tulane at +112 to win outright.

Tulane vs. North Texas prediction: Who wins?

Tulane vs. North Texas prediction 2025 — Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

North Texas hasn’t been tested to the extent that Tulane has, and when it was, it surrendered 63 points in a loss to USF, the one ranked opponent they played this year.

Tulane’s defenders have the bodies to contain the Mean Green offense early on, but they’ll eventually wear down against a North Texas attack that ranks second in college football in scoring and boasts three players who lead or nearly lead in the nation in their respective categories.

This year’s playoff race is about to get a little crazier.

College Football HQ picks...

North Texas wins 38-30
Covers the spread
And hits the over

How to watch Tulane vs. North Texas

When: Fri., Dec. 5
Where: Tulane

Time: 7 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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