Rays Take Control of ALCS After Pivotal Game 5 Win

Drew Rasmussen and the Tampa Bay Rays are a win away from clinching their third World Series berth in franchise history.

Oct 18, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Drew Rasmussen (57) reacts against the Cleveland Guardians during the first inning at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Tampa Bay Rays take their first lead of the American League Championship Series. With a 3-1 win over the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field, they take a 3-2 lead back to Tampa Bay.

The historical context of this game had been favorable for the Rays coming into it. The higher-seeded team had won the series 56% of the time after splitting the first four games. But the stakes of Game 5 were equally important to consider. The winner of Game 5 goes on to win the series 67% of the time

Now the Rays have full control of the series and will try to close it out at home. There will be no rest day, as the two teams will finish out the series at Tropicana Field. If Tampa Bay wins one of their next two games, it will be their third World Series berth in franchise history.

Here are the takeaways from the Rays win in Game 5.

Drew Rasmussen Puts Rays on Brink of Third World Series Berth

Oct 18, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Drew Rasmussen (57) throws a pitch against the Cleveland Guardians in the second inning in game five of the ALCS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Dermer-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Drew Rasmussen has been the best starting pitcher of the postseason so far. The All-Star right-hander has gone at least six innings and allowed two runs or fewer in all three of his starts.

Handed an early 3-0 lead, the right-hander made sure it would hold. The 2026 All-Star fired seven innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts. Considering the rest situation for the rest of the series, that's a huge boost for the Rays bullpen. Tampa Bay's bullpen only needed to get six outs, with Tyler Wells and Bryan Baker each getting a scoreless inning.

Rasmussen's next start could be Game 1 of the World Series. That came is scheduled for October 23, which would be four days' rest after this one. He would face Brewers flamethrower Jacob Misiorowski in a battle of aces.

There is an underlying subplot between Rasmussen and the Brewers. The right-hander was dealt to the Rays for infielder Willy Adames after the 2021 season. Rasmussen had been a talented, but oft-injured pitcher at the time.

Guardians' Backs Against the Wall

Oct 12, 2026; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Cleveland Guardians manager Stephen Vogt (12) speaks to the media before game one of the ALCS against the Tampa Bay Rays in the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Pablo Robles-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Rays are in the driver's seat entering Game 6. The story will be if the Rays can close out the series after taking a 3-2 lead.

For the Guardians, they have to survive a bullpen game so they can hand the ball to Gavin Williams for Game 7. Cleveland will feel good about their chances of an upset if they can get there.

While the pressure is on Cleveland to extend the series to a seventh game, the Rays will have urgency to prevent just that. Because the pressure shifts to them to close out a winner-take-all game at home. And the pressure might be more on Tampa Bay than Cleveland in that scenario.